{"F": {"ts_code": "688558.SH", "name": "国盛智科", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "机床工具", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200630", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 31.4, "pe_ttm": 24.5568, "pb": 2.4222, "dv_ttm": 2.3704, "total_mv": 414480.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [32.6, 30.2, 26.3, 24.7, 24.1, 25.3], "rev_series": [7.4, 11.4, 11.6, 11.0, 10.4, 12.7], "np_series": [1.2, 2.0, 1.9, 1.4, 1.3, 1.6], "roe_series": [13.2, 15.3, 12.8, 9.2, 7.9, 9.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.6, "np_ttm": 1.7, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.9, "fcf_yield": 4.5, "ocf_yield": 5.7, "gm_median": 25.3, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -6.3, "npm_median": 12.9, "roe_median": 9.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.8, "fix_assets": 3.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.42, "capex_dep": 1.15, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 29.6, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 61.9, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 3.0, "np_cagr3": -5.4, "rev_yoy": 14.3, "np_yoy": 14.1, "np_vol": 32.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["数控机床", 41.0], ["装备零部件", 4.0], ["装备部件", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 40.9, "ret_prev2_year": -24.7, "ret_ytd": 11.4, "ret_pivot": 125.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.2, "ret_60": -2.1, "ret_120": 2.4, "ret_250": 6.7, "mdd_250": -42.0, "vol_250": 47.2, "pos_52w": 73.1}, "S": {"duration": 46, "pricing": 49, "hard": 22, "bondness": 53}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 24.6 倍、股息率 2.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%、固定资产占比 14%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.5%(经营现金流/市值 5.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.3%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.15 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.6 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 47%,现价在 52 周高点的 73%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -2% / 2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "国盛智科:PE 比行业中位低 26.0倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 3.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 7.0个百分点。"]}}