{"F": {"ts_code": "688557.SH", "name": "兰剑智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "其他通用设备", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20201202", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.46, "pe_ttm": 27.1002, "pb": 2.4822, "dv_ttm": 1.103, "total_mv": 303467.835, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [43.6, 34.5, 27.5, 35.8, 32.3, 27.1], "rev_series": [4.5, 6.0, 9.2, 9.8, 12.1, 15.0], "np_series": [0.8, 0.8, 0.9, 1.1, 1.1, 1.1], "roe_series": [13.9, 8.9, 9.4, 10.6, 9.9, 9.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.3, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_ttm": -1.7, "fcf_yield": -5.6, "ocf_yield": -5.3, "gm_median": 32.3, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -16.2, "npm_median": 9.9, "roe_median": 9.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.0, "fix_assets": 2.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.48, "capex_dep": 0.39, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 47.2, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 30.3, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 18.0, "np_cagr3": 6.5, "rev_yoy": 4.4, "np_yoy": 6.1, "np_vol": 9.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 82.0, "earn_yield": 3.7, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["机器人智慧物流系统", 92.0], ["运营维护服务", 4.0], ["运营服务", 4.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 95.0, "ret_prev2_year": -26.9, "ret_ytd": -17.8, "ret_pivot": 108.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 1.2, "ret_60": 6.7, "ret_120": -13.9, "ret_250": -21.0, "mdd_250": -39.6, "vol_250": 43.4, "pos_52w": 70.3}, "S": {"duration": 49, "pricing": 51, "hard": 18, "bondness": 19}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 27.1 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 32.3%、固定资产占比 11%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.3%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.6%(经营现金流/市值 -5.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.3%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -16.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 0.39 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 27.1 倍 粗算,约 82%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -21%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 70%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 7% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "兰剑智能:PE 比行业中位低 23.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.8个百分点。"]}}