{"F": {"ts_code": "688551.SH", "name": "科威尔", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电源设备Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200910", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 36.88, "pe_ttm": 83.7194, "pb": 3.0659, "dv_ttm": 0.62, "total_mv": 401972.0848, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [60.0, 51.4, 49.8, 53.9, 45.0, 42.3], "rev_series": [1.6, 2.5, 3.8, 5.3, 4.8, 5.1], "np_series": [0.5, 0.6, 0.6, 1.2, 0.5, 0.6], "roe_series": [9.7, 6.0, 6.2, 10.0, 3.8, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.1, "np_ttm": 0.5, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 49.8, "gm_std": 4.2, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": -10.2, "npm_median": 16.2, "roe_median": 6.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.3, "fix_assets": 3.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.07, "capex_dep": 3.04, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 21.9, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 41.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 11.0, "np_cagr3": 0.9, "rev_yoy": -3.1, "np_yoy": -51.4, "np_vol": 47.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 43.1, "fwd_pe2": 27.7, "fwd_g1": 94.0, "fwd_g2": 56.0, "peg": 0.77, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["测试电源", 87.0], ["氢能测试及智能制造装备", 7.0], ["功率半导体测试及智能制造装备", 5.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 33.9, "ret_prev2_year": -51.1, "ret_ytd": 31.2, "ret_pivot": 109.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.0, "ret_60": -37.7, "ret_120": 1.4, "ret_250": 17.4, "mdd_250": -57.8, "vol_250": 78.5, "pos_52w": 47.8}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 61, "hard": 34, "bondness": 27}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 83.7 倍、股息率 0.6%、毛利率近 5 年中位 49.8%、固定资产占比 21%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 49.8%),硬资产占比 21%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 49.8%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 21%,资本开支/折旧 3.04 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 83.7 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 17%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 78%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / -38% / 1%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电源设备Ⅱ」33 家中位:PE 69.0 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 25.3% / 固定资产占比 16% / 分红率 34%。", "科威尔:PE 比行业中位高 14.7倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位高 24.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 5.2个百分点。"]}}