{"F": {"ts_code": "688549.SH", "name": "中巨芯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "sw3": "电子化学品Ⅲ", "ind": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230908", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.75, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 10.6487, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3213075.3, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.7, 22.2, 21.7, 19.9, 14.3, 14.0], "rev_series": [4.0, 5.7, 8.0, 8.9, 10.3, 12.1], "np_series": [0.2, 0.3, 0.1, 0.1, 0.1, -0.2], "roe_series": [2.5, 3.1, 0.9, 0.6, 0.3, -0.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 14.4, "np_ttm": -0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.5, "fcf_ttm": -2.8, "fcf_yield": -0.9, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 19.9, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": 2.9, "npm_median": 1.1, "roe_median": 0.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 43.1, "fix_assets": 18.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 10.65, "capex_dep": 1.96, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.9, "debt_ratio": 26.0, "debt_mv": 0.6, "payout": 85.7, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 14.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 41.0, "np_yoy": 72.7, "np_vol": 110.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["通用湿电子化学品", 31.0], ["电子湿化学品", 31.0], ["电子特种气体及前驱体", 18.0], ["电子特种气体", 18.0]], "ret_prev_year": 7.1, "ret_prev2_year": 1.8, "ret_ytd": 138.5, "ret_pivot": 332.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -24.4, "ret_60": -27.6, "ret_120": 122.8, "ret_250": 140.9, "mdd_250": -54.7, "vol_250": 89.6, "pos_52w": 53.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 48, "hard": 69, "bondness": 38}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 43%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 19.9%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.9 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 0.9 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 43%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 19.9%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.9%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.9%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.9 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 43%,资本开支/折旧 1.96 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 141%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 90%,现价在 52 周高点的 54%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -24% / -28% / 123%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电子化学品Ⅱ」36 家中位:PE 93.9 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 29.9% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 44%。", "中巨芯:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 10.2个百分点。"]}}