{"F": {"ts_code": "688545.SH", "name": "兴福电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "sw3": "电子化学品Ⅲ", "ind": "电子化学品Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20250122", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 71.5, "pe_ttm": 114.1368, "pb": 8.6666, "dv_ttm": 0.4196, "total_mv": 2574000.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [7.5, 27.5, 31.5, 27.7, 26.8, 26.5], "rev_series": [null, null, 7.9, 8.8, 11.4, 14.7], "np_series": [null, null, 1.9, 1.2, 1.6, 2.1], "roe_series": [-9.3, 12.9, 14.3, 8.3, 9.6, 8.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 17.7, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.5, "fcf_ttm": -4.2, "fcf_yield": -1.6, "ocf_yield": 0.6, "gm_median": 27.5, "gm_std": 1.8, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 24.0, "npm_median": 14.1, "roe_median": 9.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 58.4, "fix_assets": 27.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 8.67, "capex_dep": 3.63, "interest_debt": 1.9, "debt_ebitda": 0.5, "debt_ratio": 36.7, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 41.8, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 23.0, "np_cagr3": 2.6, "rev_yoy": 43.7, "np_yoy": 17.9, "np_vol": 216.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 83.8, "fwd_pe2": 54.7, "fwd_g1": 36.0, "fwd_g2": 53.0, "peg": 1.58, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["通用湿电子化学品", 40.0], ["通用型湿电子化学品", 40.0], ["功能湿电子化学品", 11.0], ["其他业务", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 91.9, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -16.6, "ret_60": -31.4, "ret_120": 42.7, "ret_250": 108.3, "mdd_250": -56.4, "vol_250": 84.9, "pos_52w": 50.7}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 58, "hard": 93, "bondness": 19}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 114.1 倍、股息率 0.4%、毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%、固定资产占比 58%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.5 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 58%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%,稳定度 93%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.5%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 24.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 58%,资本开支/折旧 3.63 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 114.1 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 108%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 85%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -17% / -31% / 43%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电子化学品Ⅱ」36 家中位:PE 93.9 / 股息率 0.4% / 毛利率 29.9% / 固定资产占比 33% / 分红率 44%。", "兴福电子:PE 比行业中位高 20.2倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 2.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.5个百分点。"]}}