{"F": {"ts_code": "688543.SH", "name": "国科军工", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "地面兵装Ⅱ", "sw3": "地面兵装Ⅲ", "ind": "地面兵装Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230621", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 42.89, "pe_ttm": 47.0321, "pb": 4.6532, "dv_ttm": 1.7487, "total_mv": 1074868.0056, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.6, 34.9, 37.1, 32.4, 34.4, 33.8], "rev_series": [5.7, 6.7, 8.4, 10.4, 12.0, 14.1], "np_series": [0.6, 0.8, 1.1, 1.4, 2.0, 2.5], "roe_series": [23.0, 17.3, 17.8, 9.6, 8.7, 10.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.8, "np_ttm": 2.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 34.4, "gm_std": 1.6, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": 3.6, "npm_median": 14.1, "roe_median": 10.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.3, "fix_assets": 7.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.65, "capex_dep": 1.4, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 21.1, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 76.3, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 19.0, "np_cagr3": 30.7, "rev_yoy": -8.0, "np_yoy": -23.4, "np_vol": 10.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.1, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 33.6, "fwd_pe2": 26.1, "fwd_g1": 40.0, "fwd_g2": 29.0, "peg": 1.16, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["军品业务", 29.0], ["军品", 29.0], ["民品业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 52.5, "ret_prev2_year": 9.6, "ret_ytd": -15.9, "ret_pivot": 83.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 11.8, "ret_60": 7.0, "ret_120": -22.9, "ret_250": -9.7, "mdd_250": -50.8, "vol_250": 52.0, "pos_52w": 62.1}, "S": {"duration": 69, "pricing": 61, "hard": 42, "bondness": 38}, "label": "中性", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 47.0 倍、股息率 1.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 34.4%、固定资产占比 26%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.0 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.4%),硬资产占比 26%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.4%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 1.40 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 47.0 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 52%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 12% / 7% / -23%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「地面兵装Ⅱ」12 家中位:PE 107.3 / 股息率 0.2% / 毛利率 28.6% / 固定资产占比 25% / 分红率 42%。", "国科军工:PE 比行业中位低 60.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 5.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点。"]}}