{"F": {"ts_code": "688539.SH", "name": "高华科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "被动元件", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230418", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.6, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.58, "dv_ttm": 0.8379, "total_mv": 438771.2, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [57.1, 60.5, 60.2, 55.8, 49.1, 46.2], "rev_series": [1.6, 2.3, 2.8, 3.4, 3.5, 4.1], "np_series": [0.4, 0.7, 0.8, 1.0, 0.6, 0.6], "roe_series": [16.7, 20.2, 16.1, 8.3, 3.2, 3.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.6, "np_ttm": -0.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -3.4, "ocf_yield": -0.9, "gm_median": 55.8, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 3.1, "npm_median": 28.2, "roe_median": 8.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.0, "fix_assets": 2.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.58, "capex_dep": 7.46, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 12.2, "debt_mv": 0.3, "payout": 62.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 13.7, "np_cagr3": -9.6, "rev_yoy": -25.9, "np_yoy": -195.1, "np_vol": 45.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["高可靠性传感器", 39.0], ["传感器网络系统", 7.0], ["传感器芯片", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 97.2, "ret_prev2_year": -18.3, "ret_ytd": -52.1, "ret_pivot": 22.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -14.3, "ret_60": -21.7, "ret_120": -38.9, "ret_250": -31.2, "mdd_250": -60.8, "vol_250": 64.3, "pos_52w": 41.4}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 69, "hard": 21, "bondness": 37}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 为负(亏损),估值里约 100% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 13%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 55.8%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.4%(经营现金流/市值 -0.9%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 55.8%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 7.46 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -61%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 41%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -14% / -22% / -39%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "高华科技:PE ;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 34.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 22.9个百分点。"]}}