{"F": {"ts_code": "688538.SH", "name": "和辉光电", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "光学光电子", "sw3": "面板", "ind": "光学光电子", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210528", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 2.23, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 4.2981, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 3079504.5848, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-19.3, -13.0, -15.9, -64.3, -23.8, -16.5], "rev_series": [25.0, 40.2, 41.9, 30.4, 49.6, 55.0], "np_series": [-10.4, -9.5, -16.0, -32.4, -25.2, -19.7], "roe_series": [-9.7, -6.8, -9.6, -22.9, -22.3, -21.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 54.2, "np_ttm": -20.3, "ocf_ttm": 10.1, "fcf_ttm": -8.6, "fcf_yield": -2.8, "ocf_yield": 3.3, "gm_median": -16.5, "gm_std": 19.1, "gm_stab": 2.16, "gm_chg_2022": 3.4, "npm_median": -38.2, "roe_median": -21.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 82.3, "fix_assets": 220.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.3, "capex_dep": 0.98, "interest_debt": 178.5, "debt_ebitda": 28.2, "debt_ratio": 73.2, "debt_mv": 58.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 9.5, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -3.0, "np_yoy": -6.9, "np_vol": 52.1, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 14.7, "ret_prev2_year": -4.5, "ret_ytd": -16.2, "ret_pivot": 9.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -7.1, "ret_60": -0.9, "ret_120": -11.2, "ret_250": -18.9, "mdd_250": -25.0, "vol_250": 29.6, "pos_52w": 75.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 45, "hard": 100, "bondness": 26}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 82%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 -16.5%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 28.2 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 82%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 -16.5%,稳定度 216%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.8%(经营现金流/市值 3.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -16.5%,稳定度 216%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 82%,资本开支/折旧 0.98 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -19%,最大回撤 -25%,年化波动 30%,现价在 52 周高点的 75%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -7% / -1% / -11%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光学光电子」95 家中位:PE 61.6 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 19.3% / 固定资产占比 31% / 分红率 43%。", "和辉光电:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 35.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 50.9个百分点。"]}}