{"F": {"ts_code": "688536.SH", "name": "思瑞浦", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "模拟芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200921", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 292.9, "pe_ttm": 97.4366, "pb": 6.108, "dv_ttm": 0.0526, "total_mv": 4044231.395, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [61.2, 60.5, 58.6, 51.8, 48.2, 46.6], "rev_series": [5.7, 13.3, 17.8, 10.9, 12.2, 21.4], "np_series": [1.8, 4.4, 2.7, -0.3, -2.0, 1.7], "roe_series": [13.2, 15.4, 7.7, -0.7, -3.6, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 28.0, "np_ttm": 4.2, "ocf_ttm": 4.4, "fcf_ttm": 2.2, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 51.8, "gm_std": 5.5, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -2.6, "npm_median": 8.1, "roe_median": 3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.0, "fix_assets": 7.4, "goodwill_ratio": 9.2, "pb_calc": 6.11, "capex_dep": 5.63, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 10.9, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 11.9, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 6.3, "np_cagr3": -13.4, "rev_yoy": 69.2, "np_yoy": 368.5, "np_vol": 233.1, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 86.6, "fwd_pe2": 58.0, "fwd_g1": 12.0, "fwd_g2": 50.0, "peg": 1.73, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["信号链类模拟集成电路芯片", 34.0], ["信号链类模拟芯片", 34.0], ["销售电源类模拟芯片", 16.0], ["电源类模拟芯片", 16.0]], "ret_prev_year": 73.0, "ret_prev2_year": -36.8, "ret_ytd": 83.4, "ret_pivot": 331.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.3, "ret_60": 3.6, "ret_120": 65.2, "ret_250": 92.5, "mdd_250": -40.4, "vol_250": 65.1, "pos_52w": 80.4}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 63, "hard": 16, "bondness": 18}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 4.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 97 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 11%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.1%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 51.8%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.8%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.6 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 5.63 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 97.4 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 92%,最大回撤 -40%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / 4% / 65%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "思瑞浦:PE 比行业中位高 15.9倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 16.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.4个百分点。"]}}