{"F": {"ts_code": "688533.SH", "name": "上声电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "汽车", "sw2": "汽车零部件", "sw3": "汽车电子电气系统", "ind": "汽车零部件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210419", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 20.12, "pe_ttm": 24.1264, "pb": 1.9044, "dv_ttm": 1.7396, "total_mv": 331954.0452, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [28.7, 26.7, 20.3, 25.5, 25.1, 20.8], "rev_series": [10.9, 13.0, 17.7, 23.3, 27.8, 30.2], "np_series": [0.8, 0.6, 0.9, 1.6, 2.4, 1.8], "roe_series": [10.8, 7.0, 8.2, 13.2, 16.3, 11.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 30.8, "np_ttm": 1.4, "ocf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_yield": 2.4, "ocf_yield": 9.5, "gm_median": 25.1, "gm_std": 2.6, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -8.4, "npm_median": 5.9, "roe_median": 11.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.4, "fix_assets": 12.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.86, "capex_dep": 1.94, "interest_debt": 13.7, "debt_ebitda": 3.6, "debt_ratio": 53.5, "debt_mv": 41.2, "payout": 31.2, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 19.6, "np_cagr3": 28.0, "rev_yoy": 4.2, "np_yoy": -53.1, "np_vol": 41.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 17.0, "fwd_pe2": 13.5, "fwd_g1": 42.0, "fwd_g2": 26.0, "peg": 0.65, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["车载扬声器", 26.0], ["扬声器", 26.0], ["车载功放", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": -15.1, "ret_prev2_year": -8.1, "ret_ytd": -30.4, "ret_pivot": -9.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.2, "ret_60": -11.9, "ret_120": -37.1, "ret_250": -30.6, "mdd_250": -41.3, "vol_250": 32.4, "pos_52w": 59.3}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 48, "hard": 52, "bondness": 33}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 24.1 倍、股息率 1.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%、固定资产占比 32%、有息负债/EBITDA 3.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%,稳定度 90%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.4%(经营现金流/市值 9.5%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.1%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.4 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.94 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.1 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -31%,最大回撤 -41%,年化波动 32%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -12% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「汽车零部件」274 家中位:PE 30.2 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 21.4% / 固定资产占比 26% / 分红率 35%。", "上声电子:PE 比行业中位低 6.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 6.9个百分点。"]}}