{"F": {"ts_code": "688531.SH", "name": "日联科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230331", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 130.41, "pe_ttm": 97.5958, "pb": 6.2964, "dv_ttm": 0.4568, "total_mv": 2159510.0499, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [40.5, 40.3, 40.7, 40.6, 43.7, 44.3], "rev_series": [2.0, 3.5, 4.8, 5.9, 7.4, 10.8], "np_series": [0.2, 0.5, 0.7, 1.1, 1.4, 1.8], "roe_series": [14.0, 18.0, 18.1, 6.2, 4.4, 5.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.3, "np_ttm": 2.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": -2.1, "fcf_yield": -1.0, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 40.7, "gm_std": 1.7, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": 0.1, "npm_median": 16.1, "roe_median": 6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.7, "fix_assets": 7.5, "goodwill_ratio": 6.3, "pb_calc": 6.3, "capex_dep": 11.28, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 22.0, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 56.1, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 30.5, "np_cagr3": 34.9, "rev_yoy": 55.4, "np_yoy": 54.6, "np_vol": 42.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 20, "fwd_pe": 67.3, "fwd_pe2": 45.0, "fwd_g1": 45.0, "fwd_g2": 49.0, "peg": 1.37, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["X射线智能检测设备", 31.0], ["集成电路制造", 12.0], ["X射线智能检测设备：集成电路及电子制造检测设备", 12.0], ["新能源电池自动检测系统", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 105.5, "ret_prev2_year": -31.6, "ret_ytd": 99.3, "ret_pivot": 412.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.6, "ret_60": -24.0, "ret_120": 76.5, "ret_250": 117.1, "mdd_250": -48.3, "vol_250": 69.7, "pos_52w": 65.7}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 62, "hard": 27, "bondness": 25}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 97.6 倍,估值里约 95% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 17%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(20 篇研报)前瞻 PE 67.3 倍,次年 45.0 倍,PEG 1.37。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 40.7%),硬资产占比 17%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.0%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.7%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 0.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 17%,资本开支/折旧 11.28 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 97.6 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 117%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 70%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -24% / 76%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "日联科技:PE 比行业中位高 55.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 14.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.3个百分点。"]}}