{"F": {"ts_code": "688528.SH", "name": "秦川物联", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "仪器仪表", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200701", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.3, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.9903, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 173040.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [39.2, 35.9, 30.5, 27.7, 22.7, 13.2], "rev_series": [3.0, 3.1, 3.7, 3.3, 3.2, 2.7], "np_series": [0.5, 0.3, 0.0, -0.6, -0.7, -1.2], "roe_series": [8.8, 3.9, 0.2, -8.2, -10.6, -23.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 2.9, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.0, "fcf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_yield": -1.5, "ocf_yield": -0.2, "gm_median": 27.7, "gm_std": 7.7, "gm_stab": 0.72, "gm_chg_2022": -8.7, "npm_median": -18.1, "roe_median": -8.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.6, "fix_assets": 3.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.6, "pb_calc": 3.99, "capex_dep": 0.58, "interest_debt": 1.3, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 45.2, "debt_mv": 7.3, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": -9.8, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 13.8, "np_yoy": 29.9, "np_vol": 1746.4, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 44.0], ["物联网智能燃气表", 22.0], ["膜式燃气表", 9.0], ["智能传感器及相关元器件", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 23.1, "ret_prev2_year": -20.8, "ret_ytd": -4.4, "ret_pivot": 48.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 10.6, "ret_60": -1.2, "ret_120": -12.1, "ret_250": -12.2, "mdd_250": -42.4, "vol_250": 38.9, "pos_52w": 78.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 43, "hard": 63, "bondness": 23}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 45%,有息负债 1 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 40%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 27.7%,稳定度 72%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.5%(经营现金流/市值 -0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.7%,稳定度 72%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 0.58 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -12%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 79%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 11% / -1% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "秦川物联:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 18.8个百分点。"]}}