{"F": {"ts_code": "688523.SH", "name": "航天环宇", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "航天装备Ⅱ", "sw3": "航天装备Ⅲ", "ind": "航天装备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230602", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 41.03, "pe_ttm": 989.7239, "pb": 9.9178, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1669428.64, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [69.9, 63.3, 59.9, 51.2, 43.7, 38.3], "rev_series": [2.7, 3.1, 4.0, 4.6, 5.1, 4.6], "np_series": [0.9, 0.8, 1.2, 1.3, 1.0, 0.5], "roe_series": [17.8, 15.0, 18.8, 11.3, 6.2, 2.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.1, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": -2.6, "fcf_yield": -1.6, "ocf_yield": 0.8, "gm_median": 51.2, "gm_std": 9.4, "gm_stab": 0.82, "gm_chg_2022": -10.0, "npm_median": 27.8, "roe_median": 11.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 47.3, "fix_assets": 12.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.92, "capex_dep": 7.63, "interest_debt": 3.8, "debt_ebitda": 5.8, "debt_ratio": 31.8, "debt_mv": 2.3, "payout": 58.0, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 4.5, "np_cagr3": -27.1, "rev_yoy": -24.5, "np_yoy": -88.5, "np_vol": 33.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.1, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 283.0, "fwd_pe2": 205.2, "fwd_g1": 250.0, "fwd_g2": 38.0, "peg": 7.45, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["飞机工艺装备开发制造", 28.0], ["航空航天工艺装备", 28.0], ["航空产品", 17.0], ["通信用产品", 13.0]], "ret_prev_year": 179.8, "ret_prev2_year": -24.9, "ret_ytd": -26.7, "ret_pivot": 162.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.1, "ret_60": -23.0, "ret_120": -37.0, "ret_250": 52.5, "mdd_250": -58.8, "vol_250": 93.3, "pos_52w": 45.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 58, "hard": 76, "bondness": 51}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 989.7 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 51.2%、固定资产占比 47%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 47%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 51.2%,稳定度 82%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.6%(经营现金流/市值 0.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 51.2%,稳定度 82%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -10.0 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 47%,资本开支/折旧 7.63 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 989.7 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 52%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 93%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -15% / -23% / -37%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「航天装备Ⅱ」9 家中位:PE 237.1 / 股息率 0.1% / 毛利率 35.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 36%。", "航天环宇:PE 比行业中位高 752.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 15.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 25.5个百分点。"]}}