{"F": {"ts_code": "688522.SH", "name": "纳睿雷达", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230301", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 18.73, "pe_ttm": 69.3889, "pb": 3.371, "dv_ttm": 0.4191, "total_mv": 794231.6025, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [79.7, 80.3, 80.8, 76.3, 63.9, 64.2], "rev_series": [1.3, 1.8, 2.1, 2.1, 3.5, 4.6], "np_series": [0.7, 1.0, 1.1, 0.6, 0.8, 1.1], "roe_series": [32.6, 24.9, 21.5, 4.6, 3.5, 4.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.4, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_ttm": -1.1, "fcf_yield": -1.4, "ocf_yield": 0.2, "gm_median": 76.3, "gm_std": 7.6, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 1.1, "npm_median": 29.8, "roe_median": 4.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.5, "fix_assets": 3.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.37, "capex_dep": 4.73, "interest_debt": 0.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 9.8, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 30.6, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 30.0, "np_cagr3": 1.3, "rev_yoy": 51.3, "np_yoy": 8.8, "np_vol": 31.0, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.4, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["雷达硬件及配套", 33.0], ["雷达及配套服务", 33.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": -0.5, "ret_prev2_year": 42.8, "ret_ytd": -34.2, "ret_pivot": 0.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.3, "ret_60": -2.5, "ret_120": -28.7, "ret_250": -45.5, "mdd_250": -49.5, "vol_250": 42.2, "pos_52w": 53.2}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 78, "hard": 23, "bondness": 14}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 69.4 倍,估值里约 93% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 14%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 76.3%),硬资产占比 14%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.4%(经营现金流/市值 0.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 76.3%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 4.73 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 69.4 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 53%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -2% / -29%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "纳睿雷达:PE 比行业中位低 9.6倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 36.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点。"]}}