{"F": {"ts_code": "688520.SH", "name": "神州细胞", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "生物制品", "sw3": "其他生物制品", "ind": "生物制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200622", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 34.53, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": null, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1624069.1721, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [81.9, 94.8, 96.7, 97.1, 95.9, 93.1], "rev_series": [0.0, 1.3, 10.2, 18.9, 25.1, 15.6], "np_series": [-7.1, -8.7, -5.2, -4.0, 1.1, -5.6], "roe_series": [-227.2, -475.9, null, null, null, -419.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 12.5, "np_ttm": -9.0, "ocf_ttm": -2.8, "fcf_ttm": -4.9, "fcf_yield": -3.0, "ocf_yield": -1.7, "gm_median": 95.9, "gm_std": 1.4, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 14.7, "npm_median": -36.3, "roe_median": -447.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 39.8, "fix_assets": 15.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 25.64, "capex_dep": 1.53, "interest_debt": 27.8, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 83.8, "debt_mv": 17.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 15.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -32.2, "np_yoy": -982.9, "np_vol": 263.4, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["销售商品", 50.0], ["产品", 50.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.5, "ret_prev2_year": -32.7, "ret_ytd": -20.3, "ret_pivot": 10.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.7, "ret_60": 4.3, "ret_120": -12.4, "ret_250": -49.6, "mdd_250": -50.5, "vol_250": 42.7, "pos_52w": 51.8}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 94, "hard": 64, "bondness": 8}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -9.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 84%,有息负债 28 亿,经营现金流/市值 -1.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "硬资产占比 40%、毛利率 95.9% 两条都占,但所在行业(医药生物)不在硬资产名单里(医药/科技的固定资产是产能不是储量),按主标签看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.0%(经营现金流/市值 -1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 95.9%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 14.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 40%,资本开支/折旧 1.53 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -50%,最大回撤 -50%,年化波动 43%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / 4% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「生物制品」55 家中位:PE 32.1 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 75.7% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 40%。", "神州细胞:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 20.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 17.7个百分点。"]}}