{"F": {"ts_code": "688519.SH", "name": "南亚新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "元件", "sw3": "印制电路板", "ind": "元件", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200818", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 267.14, "pe_ttm": 102.2888, "pb": 19.1909, "dv_ttm": 0.116, "total_mv": 6282609.2056, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [15.1, 17.9, 8.3, 4.2, 8.6, 11.8], "rev_series": [21.2, 42.1, 37.8, 29.8, 33.6, 52.3], "np_series": [1.4, 4.0, 0.4, -1.3, 0.5, 2.4], "roe_series": [8.3, 14.6, 1.6, -5.1, 2.1, 9.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 71.5, "np_ttm": 6.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.4, "fcf_ttm": -3.8, "fcf_yield": -0.6, "ocf_yield": -0.1, "gm_median": 8.6, "gm_std": 4.6, "gm_stab": 0.47, "gm_chg_2022": -6.8, "npm_median": 1.5, "roe_median": 2.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.3, "fix_assets": 16.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 19.19, "capex_dep": 2.15, "interest_debt": 9.6, "debt_ebitda": 1.1, "debt_ratio": 58.7, "debt_mv": 1.5, "payout": 60.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 11.4, "np_cagr3": 74.9, "rev_yoy": 83.2, "np_yoy": 428.8, "np_vol": 263.4, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 6, "fwd_pe": 96.7, "fwd_pe2": 60.3, "fwd_g1": 6.0, "fwd_g2": 60.0, "peg": 1.61, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["覆铜板", 38.0], ["粘结片", 10.0], ["其他主营业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 286.5, "ret_prev2_year": -17.4, "ret_ytd": 231.7, "ret_pivot": 1475.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.7, "ret_60": -12.6, "ret_120": 101.3, "ret_250": 251.5, "mdd_250": -51.4, "vol_250": 96.4, "pos_52w": 65.1}, "S": {"duration": 92, "pricing": 24, "hard": 32, "bondness": 34}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 102.3 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%、固定资产占比 20%、有息负债/EBITDA 1.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 20%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.6%(经营现金流/市值 -0.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.6%,稳定度 47%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 2.15 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 102.3 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 252%,最大回撤 -51%,年化波动 96%,现价在 52 周高点的 65%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -12% / -13% / 101%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「元件」67 家中位:PE 65.2 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 21.3% / 固定资产占比 36% / 分红率 44%。", "南亚新材:PE 比行业中位高 37.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 15.6个百分点。"]}}