{"F": {"ts_code": "688518.SH", "name": "联赢激光", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "激光设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200622", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 21.07, "pe_ttm": 34.6207, "pb": 2.1749, "dv_ttm": 0.7119, "total_mv": 719171.9857, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.7, 37.0, 35.9, 32.9, 30.5, 28.4], "rev_series": [8.8, 14.0, 28.2, 35.1, 31.5, 32.6], "np_series": [0.7, 0.9, 2.7, 2.9, 1.7, 1.7], "roe_series": [5.8, 6.2, 16.2, 11.9, 5.4, 5.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 34.7, "np_ttm": 2.1, "ocf_ttm": -0.3, "fcf_ttm": -1.7, "fcf_yield": -2.3, "ocf_yield": -0.5, "gm_median": 32.9, "gm_std": 3.2, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -0.7, "npm_median": 6.6, "roe_median": 6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.3, "fix_assets": 11.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.17, "capex_dep": 1.69, "interest_debt": 2.6, "debt_ebitda": 0.8, "debt_ratio": 66.0, "debt_mv": 3.7, "payout": 30.6, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 4.9, "np_cagr3": -14.4, "rev_yoy": 13.6, "np_yoy": 69.9, "np_vol": 79.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 86.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 20.2, "fwd_pe2": 14.2, "fwd_g1": 72.0, "fwd_g2": 42.0, "peg": 0.48, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 38.0], ["激光焊接自动化成套设备", 17.0], ["激光焊接系统", 17.0], ["工作台", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 55.3, "ret_prev2_year": -22.4, "ret_ytd": -12.7, "ret_pivot": 83.1, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 4.9, "ret_60": -18.4, "ret_120": -17.4, "ret_250": -3.6, "mdd_250": -47.7, "vol_250": 57.9, "pos_52w": 63.9}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 55, "hard": 18, "bondness": 32}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 34.6 倍、股息率 0.7%、毛利率近 5 年中位 32.9%、固定资产占比 11%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.8 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 32.9%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -2.3%(经营现金流/市值 -0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 32.9%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 1.69 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.6 倍 粗算,约 86%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -4%,最大回撤 -48%,年化波动 58%,现价在 52 周高点的 64%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -18% / -17%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "联赢激光:PE 比行业中位低 42.8倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.5个百分点。"]}}