{"F": {"ts_code": "688517.SH", "name": "金冠电气", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电网设备", "sw3": "配电设备", "ind": "电网设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210618", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 15.98, "pe_ttm": 38.4307, "pb": 2.9225, "dv_ttm": 3.0179, "total_mv": 218307.8936, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.8, 30.9, 29.7, 37.9, 32.5, 28.4], "rev_series": [5.3, 5.3, 6.1, 5.7, 6.6, 7.3], "np_series": [0.7, 0.7, 0.8, 0.8, 0.9, 0.8], "roe_series": [18.0, 11.9, 10.9, 10.5, 11.3, 9.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.9, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_yield": -0.3, "ocf_yield": 3.8, "gm_median": 30.9, "gm_std": 3.3, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": -5.1, "npm_median": 13.0, "roe_median": 10.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 22.6, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.92, "capex_dep": 4.37, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 40.7, "debt_mv": 1.4, "payout": 83.1, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 6.4, "np_cagr3": 0.8, "rev_yoy": -11.5, "np_yoy": -56.8, "np_vol": 10.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 87.0, "earn_yield": 2.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 20.6, "ret_prev2_year": -12.1, "ret_ytd": 5.8, "ret_pivot": 46.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.6, "ret_60": -8.8, "ret_120": -15.9, "ret_250": 3.5, "mdd_250": -41.6, "vol_250": 48.4, "pos_52w": 67.1}, "S": {"duration": 62, "pricing": 50, "hard": 36, "bondness": 62}, "label": "现金流红利", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["分红率 83%、股息率 3.0%、营收 3 年复合 6.4%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:红利底仓,但不靠杠杆。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.9%),硬资产占比 23%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "船票:加息期底仓。放水信号出现后按 7:3 → 5:5 → 3:7 逐步让位给科技。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.3%(经营现金流/市值 3.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.9%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 23%,资本开支/折旧 4.37 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 38.4 倍 粗算,约 87%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 4%,最大回撤 -42%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 3% / -9% / -16%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电网设备」141 家中位:PE 43.5 / 股息率 1.0% / 毛利率 23.5% / 固定资产占比 15% / 分红率 40%。", "金冠电气:PE 比行业中位低 5.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 2.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 7.7个百分点。"]}}