{"F": {"ts_code": "688515.SH", "name": "裕太微", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "模拟芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230210", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 141.92, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 7.8939, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1135360.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.4, 34.1, 47.0, 52.4, 42.7, 43.5], "rev_series": [0.1, 2.5, 4.0, 2.7, 4.0, 6.2], "np_series": [-0.4, -0.0, -0.0, -1.5, -2.0, -1.3], "roe_series": [-70.7, -0.3, -0.1, -14.2, -11.7, -8.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.2, "np_ttm": -1.0, "ocf_ttm": -2.9, "fcf_ttm": -3.7, "fcf_yield": -3.2, "ocf_yield": -2.5, "gm_median": 43.5, "gm_std": 6.0, "gm_stab": 0.86, "gm_chg_2022": 21.6, "npm_median": -21.7, "roe_median": -8.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.6, "fix_assets": 1.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.89, "capex_dep": 4.58, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 11.5, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 15.2, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 46.2, "np_yoy": 29.5, "np_vol": 14670.0, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": 473.1, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["芯片商品销售收入", 33.0], ["芯片产品", 33.0], ["技术服务费", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 3.6, "ret_prev2_year": 0.2, "ret_ytd": 38.4, "ret_pivot": 159.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.9, "ret_60": -23.2, "ret_120": 9.8, "ret_250": 30.9, "mdd_250": -53.3, "vol_250": 76.0, "pos_52w": 52.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 63, "hard": 14, "bondness": 8}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.0 亿,近 5 年亏损 5 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 12%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.5%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 43.5%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.2%(经营现金流/市值 -2.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 43.5%,稳定度 86%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 21.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 4.58 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 31%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 52%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -9% / -23% / 10%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "裕太微:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 8.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.8个百分点。"]}}