{"F": {"ts_code": "688511.SH", "name": "天微电子", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210730", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 23.02, "pe_ttm": 384.9414, "pb": 3.7645, "dv_ttm": 1.0025, "total_mv": 307726.5258, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [70.8, 73.1, 62.1, 59.2, 39.5, 49.0], "rev_series": [2.3, 2.1, 1.1, 1.4, 0.8, 1.5], "np_series": [1.1, 1.1, 0.4, 0.5, -0.3, 0.3], "roe_series": [63.4, 21.6, 5.5, 6.0, -3.1, 4.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 1.0, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 0.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 2.3, "ocf_yield": 2.7, "gm_median": 59.2, "gm_std": 11.5, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -8.7, "npm_median": 35.4, "roe_median": 5.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.1, "fix_assets": 0.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.76, "capex_dep": 1.38, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 12.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 74.8, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 10.1, "np_cagr3": -8.7, "rev_yoy": -64.9, "np_yoy": -94.1, "np_vol": 126.6, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.3, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 34.0], ["商品销售收入", 29.0], ["商品销售", 29.0], ["委托研制项目", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 85.9, "ret_prev2_year": -35.3, "ret_ytd": 5.4, "ret_pivot": 209.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.2, "ret_60": -7.4, "ret_120": 4.8, "ret_250": 21.5, "mdd_250": -45.2, "vol_250": 62.2, "pos_52w": 70.6}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 62, "hard": 16, "bondness": 45}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 384.9 倍,估值里约 99% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 10%,毛利率近 5 年中位 59.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 2.3%(经营现金流/市值 2.7%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 59.2%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -8.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 1.38 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 384.9 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 22%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -7% / 5%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "天微电子:PE 比行业中位高 305.9倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 19.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.0个百分点。"]}}