{"F": {"ts_code": "688505.SH", "name": "复旦张江", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200619", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 7.95, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 3.8281, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 824074.8195, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [92.5, 92.9, 91.8, 91.7, 91.4, 89.9], "rev_series": [8.3, 11.4, 10.3, 8.5, 7.1, 6.9], "np_series": [1.6, 2.1, 1.4, 1.1, 0.4, -1.6], "roe_series": [11.2, 10.1, 6.2, 4.7, 1.7, -7.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.7, "np_ttm": -1.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.6, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 1.7, "ocf_yield": 2.0, "gm_median": 91.7, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.99, "gm_chg_2022": -0.6, "npm_median": 12.7, "roe_median": 4.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 18.3, "fix_assets": 4.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.83, "capex_dep": 0.43, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 10.8, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": 94.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -12.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -4.6, "np_yoy": 545.6, "np_vol": 191.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["销售医药产品收入", 44.0], ["医药及诊断产品", 44.0], ["技术转让", 6.0], ["技术许可收入", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 8.6, "ret_prev2_year": -16.1, "ret_ytd": -4.2, "ret_pivot": 23.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 0.6, "ret_60": 19.0, "ret_120": -2.0, "ret_250": -23.2, "mdd_250": -34.2, "vol_250": 31.4, "pos_52w": 78.3}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 88, "hard": 29, "bondness": 56}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 11%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 91.7%),硬资产占比 18%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.7%(经营现金流/市值 2.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 91.7%,稳定度 99%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -0.6 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 18%,资本开支/折旧 0.43 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -34%,年化波动 31%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 1% / 19% / -2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "复旦张江:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 39.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 11.5个百分点。"]}}