{"F": {"ts_code": "688499.SH", "name": "利元亨", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电专用设备", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210701", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 32.67, "pe_ttm": 96.6301, "pb": 2.3291, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 551236.0095, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.3, 38.5, 34.6, 26.9, 7.8, 27.2], "rev_series": [14.3, 23.3, 42.0, 49.9, 24.8, 30.8], "np_series": [1.4, 2.1, 2.9, -1.9, -10.4, 0.5], "roe_series": [16.6, 13.9, 12.6, -7.5, -44.5, 2.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 35.1, "np_ttm": 0.6, "ocf_ttm": 3.9, "fcf_ttm": 3.2, "fcf_yield": 5.7, "ocf_yield": 7.2, "gm_median": 27.2, "gm_std": 10.6, "gm_stab": 0.61, "gm_chg_2022": -3.8, "npm_median": 1.7, "roe_median": 2.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 26.3, "fix_assets": 22.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.33, "capex_dep": 0.57, "interest_debt": 15.5, "debt_ebitda": 4.6, "debt_ratio": 72.2, "debt_mv": 28.2, "payout": null, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": -9.9, "np_cagr3": -43.8, "rev_yoy": 28.2, "np_yoy": 16.6, "np_vol": 206.3, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 95.0, "earn_yield": 1.0, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 36.6, "fwd_pe2": 19.7, "fwd_g1": 164.0, "fwd_g2": 85.0, "peg": 0.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["锂电池制造设备", 61.0], ["配件、增值及服务", 12.0], ["增值配件及服务", 12.0], ["智能仓储设备", 6.0]], "ret_prev_year": 158.0, "ret_prev2_year": -41.3, "ret_ytd": -43.4, "ret_pivot": 89.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -11.3, "ret_60": -21.5, "ret_120": -40.9, "ret_250": -46.4, "mdd_250": -58.0, "vol_250": 62.3, "pos_52w": 42.3}, "S": {"duration": 91, "pricing": 40, "hard": 42, "bondness": 34}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 0.6 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 97 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 72%,有息负债 16 亿,经营现金流/市值 7.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 26%,毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 5.7%(经营现金流/市值 7.2%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 27.2%,稳定度 61%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 26%,资本开支/折旧 0.57 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 96.6 倍 粗算,约 95%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -46%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 62%,现价在 52 周高点的 42%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -11% / -22% / -41%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "利元亨:PE 比行业中位高 60.8倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 9.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.5个百分点。"]}}