{"F": {"ts_code": "688498.SH", "name": "源杰科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "分立器件", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20221221", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 1466.0, "pe_ttm": 242.7956, "pb": 58.0953, "dv_ttm": 0.0469, "total_mv": 18251743.98, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [68.2, 65.2, 61.9, 41.9, 33.3, 58.1], "rev_series": [2.3, 2.3, 2.8, 1.4, 2.5, 6.0], "np_series": [0.8, 1.0, 1.0, 0.2, -0.1, 1.9], "roe_series": [22.5, 16.9, 7.4, 0.9, -0.3, 8.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.2, "np_ttm": 7.5, "ocf_ttm": 5.8, "fcf_ttm": -3.6, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.3, "gm_median": 58.1, "gm_std": 12.3, "gm_stab": 0.79, "gm_chg_2022": -6.3, "npm_median": 31.7, "roe_median": 7.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 33.9, "fix_assets": 13.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 58.1, "capex_dep": 13.06, "interest_debt": 2.8, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 20.1, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 40.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 28.6, "np_cagr3": 23.9, "rev_yoy": 351.4, "np_yoy": 1212.2, "np_vol": 1304.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 14, "fwd_pe": 154.0, "fwd_pe2": 89.4, "fwd_g1": 58.0, "fwd_g2": 72.0, "peg": 2.14, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["数据中心类产品", 28.0], ["数据中心产品", 28.0], ["电信市场类产品", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 382.2, "ret_prev2_year": -9.9, "ret_ytd": 231.5, "ret_pivot": 2385.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.2, "ret_60": 1.0, "ret_120": 141.9, "ret_250": 636.6, "mdd_250": -46.1, "vol_250": 94.1, "pos_52w": 77.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 60, "hard": 54, "bondness": 15}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 242.8 倍、股息率 0.0%、毛利率近 5 年中位 58.1%、固定资产占比 34%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.3 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 34%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 58.1%,稳定度 79%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 58.1%,稳定度 79%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -6.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 34%,资本开支/折旧 13.06 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 242.8 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 637%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 94%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / 1% / 142%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "源杰科技:PE 比行业中位高 161.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 23.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 22.5个百分点。"]}}