{"F": {"ts_code": "688489.SH", "name": "三未信安", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "计算机设备", "sw3": "安防设备", "ind": "计算机设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20221202", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 24.53, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 2.3439, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 415976.0605, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [73.3, 73.6, 75.5, 73.2, 72.2, 71.1], "rev_series": [2.0, 2.7, 3.4, 3.6, 4.7, 5.5], "np_series": [0.5, 0.7, 1.1, 0.7, 0.4, -0.4], "roe_series": [25.7, 21.7, 9.4, 3.6, 2.2, -2.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.7, "np_ttm": -0.3, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": 0.7, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 2.2, "gm_median": 73.2, "gm_std": 1.5, "gm_stab": 0.98, "gm_chg_2022": 2.1, "npm_median": 21.1, "roe_median": 3.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.1, "fix_assets": 1.6, "goodwill_ratio": 10.4, "pb_calc": 2.34, "capex_dep": 1.02, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 7.3, "debt_ratio": 11.0, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 32.0, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 17.7, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 7.4, "np_yoy": 57.3, "np_vol": 90.1, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 105.5, "fwd_pe2": 52.5, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 101.0, "peg": 1.04, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["密码整机", 23.0], ["密码系统", 12.0], ["密码服务及其他", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 32.9, "ret_prev2_year": -26.4, "ret_ytd": -20.6, "ret_pivot": 35.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 3.9, "ret_60": 8.3, "ret_120": -12.6, "ret_250": -37.7, "mdd_250": -44.9, "vol_250": 41.5, "pos_52w": 66.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 80, "hard": 13, "bondness": 28}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.3 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 11%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 2.2%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 73.2%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.2%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 73.2%,稳定度 98%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 1.02 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -38%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 66%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 4% / 8% / -13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「计算机设备」88 家中位:PE 51.7 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 35.8% / 固定资产占比 12% / 分红率 49%。", "三未信安:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 37.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 3.6个百分点。"]}}