{"F": {"ts_code": "688486.SH", "name": "龙迅股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "数字芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230221", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 40.47, "pe_ttm": 41.3966, "pb": 4.9732, "dv_ttm": 1.8271, "total_mv": 756267.7464, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [56.6, 64.6, 62.6, 54.0, 55.5, 54.2], "rev_series": [1.4, 2.3, 2.4, 3.2, 4.7, 5.7], "np_series": [0.4, 0.8, 0.7, 1.0, 1.4, 1.7], "roe_series": [19.2, 35.2, 23.4, 11.8, 10.1, 11.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.2, "np_ttm": 1.8, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 0.3, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.8, "gm_median": 55.5, "gm_std": 4.5, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 6.0, "npm_median": 31.0, "roe_median": 11.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.1, "fix_assets": 1.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 4.97, "capex_dep": 5.02, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 6.7, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 160.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 33.1, "np_cagr3": 35.4, "rev_yoy": 20.8, "np_yoy": 15.1, "np_vol": 51.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 88.0, "earn_yield": 2.4, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 18.5, "fwd_pe2": 12.9, "fwd_g1": 124.0, "fwd_g2": 43.0, "peg": 0.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["高清视频信号处理芯片", 28.0], ["智能视频芯片", 28.0], ["高速信号传输芯片", 5.0]], "ret_prev_year": 25.4, "ret_prev2_year": -1.6, "ret_ytd": -22.7, "ret_pivot": 91.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.0, "ret_60": -20.2, "ret_120": -14.4, "ret_250": -22.7, "mdd_250": -39.3, "vol_250": 55.6, "pos_52w": 62.9}, "S": {"duration": 64, "pricing": 71, "hard": 18, "bondness": 49}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 41.4 倍、股息率 1.8%、毛利率近 5 年中位 55.5%、固定资产占比 11%、资产负债率 7%:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 55.5%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 55.5%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 6.0 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 5.02 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 41.4 倍 粗算,约 88%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -23%,最大回撤 -39%,年化波动 56%,现价在 52 周高点的 63%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -20% / -14%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "龙迅股份:PE 比行业中位低 40.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 1.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 20.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.3个百分点。"]}}