{"F": {"ts_code": "688480.SH", "name": "赛恩斯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "综合环境治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20221125", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 70.11, "pe_ttm": 53.3761, "pb": 5.441, "dv_ttm": 0.5991, "total_mv": 668331.9882, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [33.4, 31.2, 30.7, 28.8, 34.7, 29.4], "rev_series": [3.6, 3.8, 5.5, 8.1, 9.3, 12.3], "np_series": [0.5, 0.4, 0.7, 0.9, 1.8, 1.1], "roe_series": [13.4, 11.4, 10.2, 10.0, 18.0, 9.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 13.6, "np_ttm": 1.3, "ocf_ttm": 1.7, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.6, "ocf_yield": 2.6, "gm_median": 30.7, "gm_std": 2.1, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": -2.7, "npm_median": 12.6, "roe_median": 10.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 13.3, "fix_assets": 2.8, "goodwill_ratio": 8.5, "pb_calc": 5.44, "capex_dep": 5.79, "interest_debt": 0.5, "debt_ebitda": 0.3, "debt_ratio": 39.6, "debt_mv": 0.8, "payout": 37.8, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 30.9, "np_cagr3": 17.0, "rev_yoy": 30.5, "np_yoy": 38.9, "np_vol": 47.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.9, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 42.6, "fwd_pe2": 24.6, "fwd_g1": 25.0, "fwd_g2": 73.0, "peg": 0.58, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 37.0], ["运营服务", 16.0], ["矿冶环保-运营服务", 16.0], ["新材料-产品销售", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 95.7, "ret_prev2_year": -29.8, "ret_ytd": 37.3, "ret_pivot": 226.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -13.2, "ret_60": -22.6, "ret_120": -34.0, "ret_250": 65.2, "mdd_250": -56.1, "vol_250": 79.7, "pos_52w": 47.5}, "S": {"duration": 74, "pricing": 53, "hard": 21, "bondness": 18}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 39%,PE TTM 53.4 倍 但前瞻 PE 42.6 倍,PEG 0.58。", "自由现金流 0.4 亿(正),次年预期增速 73%(7 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 30.7%),硬资产占比 13%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.6%(经营现金流/市值 2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.7%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.7 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 13%,资本开支/折旧 5.79 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 53.4 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 65%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 80%,现价在 52 周高点的 48%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -13% / -23% / -34%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "赛恩斯:PE 比行业中位高 27.3倍;股息率 比行业中位低 1.0个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 3.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点。"]}}