{"F": {"ts_code": "688479.SH", "name": "友车科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "计算机", "sw2": "软件开发", "sw3": "垂直应用软件", "ind": "软件开发", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230511", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 35.4, "pe_ttm": 186.9396, "pb": 3.8574, "dv_ttm": 0.5199, "total_mv": 712688.376, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [44.8, 43.8, 40.0, 35.1, 35.1, 31.1], "rev_series": [4.8, 5.9, 6.6, 7.4, 5.9, 5.1], "np_series": [0.8, 1.2, 1.1, 1.1, 0.8, 0.4], "roe_series": [18.6, 24.1, 17.3, 8.8, 4.2, 2.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.0, "np_ttm": 0.4, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 35.1, "gm_std": 4.4, "gm_stab": 0.87, "gm_chg_2022": -4.8, "npm_median": 15.6, "roe_median": 8.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.2, "fix_assets": 1.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.86, "capex_dep": 0.03, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 10.2, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 86.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -8.2, "np_cagr3": -26.6, "rev_yoy": -6.5, "np_yoy": -28.0, "np_vol": 31.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["软件开发与服务(行业)", 41.0], ["软件开发与服务", 41.0], ["系统运维服务", 16.0], ["智能设备销售", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 9.3, "ret_prev2_year": -23.0, "ret_ytd": 166.9, "ret_pivot": 263.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.4, "ret_60": 15.5, "ret_120": 41.4, "ret_250": 140.1, "mdd_250": -36.4, "vol_250": 63.7, "pos_52w": 90.8}, "S": {"duration": 99, "pricing": 52, "hard": 13, "bondness": 56}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 186.9 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 8%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 35.1%),硬资产占比 8%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 35.1%,稳定度 87%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 8%,资本开支/折旧 0.03 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 186.9 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 140%,最大回撤 -36%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 91%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / 16% / 41%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;已在高位,贴现率冲击时跌幅按 PE 放大。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「软件开发」135 家中位:PE 82.7 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 48.7% / 固定资产占比 9% / 分红率 45%。", "友车科技:PE 比行业中位高 104.2倍;股息率 与行业中位持平;毛利率 比行业中位低 13.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点。"]}}