{"F": {"ts_code": "688472.SH", "name": "阿特斯", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "光伏电池组件", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230609", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.78, "pe_ttm": 54.7371, "pb": 1.4074, "dv_ttm": 1.1099, "total_mv": 3198677.0078, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.5, 9.3, 11.4, 14.0, 15.0, 10.4], "rev_series": [232.8, 280.1, 475.4, 513.1, 461.7, 402.6], "np_series": [16.1, 0.3, 21.6, 29.0, 22.5, 10.2], "roe_series": [18.3, 0.4, 20.5, 17.6, 10.1, 4.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 319.9, "np_ttm": 5.8, "ocf_ttm": 24.0, "fcf_ttm": -29.7, "fcf_yield": -9.3, "ocf_yield": 7.5, "gm_median": 11.4, "gm_std": 2.2, "gm_stab": 0.81, "gm_chg_2022": -7.1, "npm_median": 4.5, "roe_median": 10.1, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 32.5, "fix_assets": 195.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.41, "capex_dep": 1.83, "interest_debt": 172.9, "debt_ebitda": 3.8, "debt_ratio": 62.1, "debt_mv": 54.0, "payout": 28.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -5.4, "np_cagr3": -22.2, "rev_yoy": -39.3, "np_yoy": -59.0, "np_vol": 2440.6, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 91.0, "earn_yield": 1.8, "consensus_n": 10, "fwd_pe": 18.5, "fwd_pe2": 9.9, "fwd_g1": 196.0, "fwd_g2": 86.0, "peg": 0.22, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["大型储能系统", 15.0], ["储能系统业务", 15.0], ["光伏组件产品收入", 10.0]], "ret_prev_year": 19.8, "ret_prev2_year": 0.4, "ret_ytd": -40.7, "ret_pivot": -18.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -15.7, "ret_60": -20.8, "ret_120": -43.6, "ret_250": -9.7, "mdd_250": -63.6, "vol_250": 64.3, "pos_52w": 36.7}, "S": {"duration": 75, "pricing": 38, "hard": 52, "bondness": 48}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 32%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 11.4%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.1 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 3.8 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 32%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 11.4%,稳定度 81%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -9.3%(经营现金流/市值 7.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 11.4%,稳定度 81%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.1 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 32%,资本开支/折旧 1.83 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 54.7 倍 粗算,约 91%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -64%,年化波动 64%,现价在 52 周高点的 37%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -16% / -21% / -44%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "阿特斯:PE 比行业中位高 13.7倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 6.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 9.9个百分点。"]}}