{"F": {"ts_code": "688469.SH", "name": "芯联集成", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "集成电路制造", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20230510", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 8.3, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 5.2109, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 6957630.376, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [-94.0, -16.4, -0.2, -6.8, 1.0, 5.5], "rev_series": [7.4, 20.2, 46.1, 53.2, 65.1, 81.8], "np_series": [-13.7, -12.4, -10.9, -19.6, -9.6, -5.9], "roe_series": [-35.1, -27.0, -27.5, -24.6, -7.8, -4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 92.5, "np_ttm": -1.5, "ocf_ttm": 24.2, "fcf_ttm": -8.1, "fcf_yield": -1.2, "ocf_yield": 3.5, "gm_median": -0.2, "gm_std": 7.6, "gm_stab": 39.06, "gm_chg_2022": 93.8, "npm_median": -34.6, "roe_median": -24.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 52.1, "fix_assets": 180.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.21, "capex_dep": 0.9, "interest_debt": 114.1, "debt_ebitda": 4.4, "debt_ratio": 46.9, "debt_mv": 16.4, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 21.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 30.5, "np_yoy": 263.4, "np_vol": 45.8, "loss_years": 5, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 158.9, "fwd_pe2": 90.0, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 77.0, "peg": 2.06, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 48.0], ["其他业务", 2.0]], "ret_prev_year": 30.4, "ret_prev2_year": 2.2, "ret_ytd": 24.1, "ret_pivot": 147.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.4, "ret_60": 17.2, "ret_120": 18.4, "ret_250": 45.1, "mdd_250": -34.7, "vol_250": 53.1, "pos_52w": 78.2}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 46, "hard": 83, "bondness": 13}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["亏损或困境", "近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 52%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 -0.2%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 93.8 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 4.4 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 52%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 -0.2%,稳定度 3906%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.2%(经营现金流/市值 3.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 -0.2%,稳定度 3906%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 93.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 52%,资本开支/折旧 0.90 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 45%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / 17% / 18%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "芯联集成:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 35.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 40.7个百分点。"]}}