{"F": {"ts_code": "688466.SH", "name": "金科环境", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "环保", "sw2": "环境治理", "sw3": "水务及水治理", "ind": "环境治理", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200508", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": true, "hard": false, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 14.19, "pe_ttm": 85.6213, "pb": 1.5359, "dv_ttm": 2.0226, "total_mv": 173336.8098, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [30.9, 32.4, 34.1, 39.1, 36.2, 33.4], "rev_series": [5.6, 5.6, 6.7, 5.7, 6.2, 5.2], "np_series": [0.7, 0.6, 0.8, 0.7, 0.7, 0.4], "roe_series": [11.0, 6.3, 7.3, 6.4, 5.9, 3.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 4.6, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 8.0, "ocf_yield": 10.5, "gm_median": 34.1, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": 3.2, "npm_median": 11.9, "roe_median": 6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.6, "fix_assets": 1.9, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.54, "capex_dep": 2.34, "interest_debt": 3.3, "debt_ebitda": 3.5, "debt_ratio": 47.4, "debt_mv": 19.3, "payout": 74.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -7.9, "np_cagr3": -21.1, "rev_yoy": -24.5, "np_yoy": -57.4, "np_vol": 21.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 22.5, "fwd_pe2": 17.3, "fwd_g1": 280.0, "fwd_g2": 30.0, "peg": 0.75, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["水处理技术解决方案", 44.0], ["新水岛及水厂运维服务", 44.0], ["新水岛及工艺包产品销售", 11.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 24.4, "ret_prev2_year": -22.8, "ret_ytd": -11.2, "ret_pivot": 41.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 5.3, "ret_60": -1.5, "ret_120": -21.7, "ret_250": -39.8, "mdd_250": -51.6, "vol_250": 36.3, "pos_52w": 59.3}, "S": {"duration": 88, "pricing": 59, "hard": 14, "bondness": 69}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 85.6 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 9%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 22.5 倍,次年 17.3 倍,PEG 0.75。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 34.1%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 8.0%(经营现金流/市值 10.5%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 34.1%,稳定度 93%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 3.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 2.34 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 85.6 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -40%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 5% / -2% / -22%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「环境治理」107 家中位:PE 26.1 / 股息率 1.6% / 毛利率 27.6% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 38%。", "金科环境:PE 比行业中位高 59.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.4个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.3个百分点。"]}}