{"F": {"ts_code": "688456.SH", "name": "有研粉材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "有色金属", "sw2": "金属新材料", "sw3": "其他金属新材料", "ind": "金属新材料", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210317", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 71.03, "pe_ttm": 82.2473, "pb": 5.737, "dv_ttm": 0.3337, "total_mv": 736296.98, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [10.1, 8.6, 7.4, 8.3, 7.6, 8.0], "rev_series": [17.4, 27.8, 27.8, 26.8, 32.3, 39.0], "np_series": [1.3, 0.8, 0.6, 0.6, 0.6, 0.7], "roe_series": [19.1, 8.8, 5.0, 4.8, 5.0, 5.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 47.3, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": -1.9, "fcf_ttm": -2.5, "fcf_yield": -3.4, "ocf_yield": -2.6, "gm_median": 8.0, "gm_std": 0.4, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -2.8, "npm_median": 2.0, "roe_median": 5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 16.4, "fix_assets": 4.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 5.74, "capex_dep": 1.6, "interest_debt": 4.1, "debt_ebitda": 2.3, "debt_ratio": 47.9, "debt_mv": 5.5, "payout": 35.4, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 12.0, "np_cagr3": 8.0, "rev_yoy": 46.4, "np_yoy": 54.8, "np_vol": 22.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.2, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 136.1, "ret_prev2_year": 19.1, "ret_ytd": -8.3, "ret_pivot": 171.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -17.3, "ret_60": -48.1, "ret_120": 21.1, "ret_250": 40.1, "mdd_250": -60.0, "vol_250": 74.6, "pos_52w": 44.6}, "S": {"duration": 87, "pricing": 43, "hard": 26, "bondness": 29}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 82.2 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 16%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 16%,毛利率近 5 年中位 8.0%。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.4%(经营现金流/市值 -2.6%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 8.0%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -2.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 16%,资本开支/折旧 1.60 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 82.2 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 40%,最大回撤 -60%,年化波动 75%,现价在 52 周高点的 45%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -17% / -48% / 21%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「金属新材料」35 家中位:PE 58.5 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 35%。", "有研粉材:PE 比行业中位高 23.7倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 6.5个百分点。"]}}