{"F": {"ts_code": "688455.SH", "name": "科捷智能", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "自动化设备", "sw3": "其他自动化设备", "ind": "自动化设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220915", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 16.41, "pe_ttm": 22.1946, "pb": 2.6547, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 275738.3787, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [23.8, 21.3, 20.5, 11.8, 13.1, 16.2], "rev_series": [8.8, 12.8, 16.7, 11.5, 13.9, 22.9], "np_series": [0.6, 0.9, 0.9, -0.8, -0.6, 0.3], "roe_series": [38.9, 29.7, 10.7, -6.1, -5.2, 3.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 25.3, "np_ttm": 1.2, "ocf_ttm": -0.8, "fcf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_yield": -5.0, "ocf_yield": -3.0, "gm_median": 16.2, "gm_std": 3.8, "gm_stab": 0.76, "gm_chg_2022": -3.3, "npm_median": 1.3, "roe_median": 3.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.5, "fix_assets": 4.7, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.65, "capex_dep": 3.96, "interest_debt": 7.9, "debt_ebitda": 32.8, "debt_ratio": 74.8, "debt_mv": 28.7, "payout": null, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 11.1, "np_cagr3": -30.1, "rev_yoy": 49.1, "np_yoy": 251.6, "np_vol": 109.8, "loss_years": 2, "far_share": 77.0, "earn_yield": 4.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 49.0], ["智能分拣系统", 33.0], ["智能仓储系统", 10.0], ["智能输送系统", 3.0]], "ret_prev_year": 83.3, "ret_prev2_year": -13.8, "ret_ytd": -18.3, "ret_pivot": 102.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.9, "ret_60": -11.6, "ret_120": -28.6, "ret_250": 2.5, "mdd_250": -56.4, "vol_250": 53.7, "pos_52w": 55.0}, "S": {"duration": 43, "pricing": 40, "hard": 18, "bondness": 24}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 2 年;PE 22 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 75%,有息负债 8 亿,经营现金流/市值 -3.0%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 12%,毛利率近 5 年中位 16.2%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -5.0%(经营现金流/市值 -3.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 16.2%,稳定度 76%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -3.3 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 3.96 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 22.2 倍 粗算,约 77%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 2%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 54%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / -12% / -29%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「自动化设备」93 家中位:PE 77.4 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 33.9% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 42%。", "科捷智能:PE 比行业中位低 55.2倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 17.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 2.3个百分点。"]}}