{"F": {"ts_code": "688449.SH", "name": "联芸科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "数字芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20241129", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 61.0, "pe_ttm": 46.3361, "pb": 11.538, "dv_ttm": 0.082, "total_mv": 2806000.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [29.8, 35.6, 40.0, 45.7, 47.5, 51.4], "rev_series": [null, null, 5.7, 10.3, 11.7, 13.3], "np_series": [null, null, -0.8, 0.5, 1.2, 1.4], "roe_series": [-1.6, 13.0, -18.2, 11.1, 10.6, 7.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 15.7, "np_ttm": 6.1, "ocf_ttm": 3.1, "fcf_ttm": -1.5, "fcf_yield": -0.5, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 45.7, "gm_std": 5.6, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": 10.2, "npm_median": 7.8, "roe_median": 10.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.0, "fix_assets": 3.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 11.54, "capex_dep": 10.62, "interest_debt": 1.2, "debt_ebitda": 0.6, "debt_ratio": 19.0, "debt_mv": 0.4, "payout": 16.1, "div_years": 1, "rev_cagr3": 32.3, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 40.1, "np_yoy": 825.5, "np_vol": 510.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.2, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 181.2, "fwd_pe2": 113.7, "fwd_g1": -74.0, "fwd_g2": 59.0, "peg": 3.07, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["数据存储主控芯片产品", 43.0], ["AIoT信号处理及传输芯片产品", 6.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.7, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": 35.2, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.5, "ret_60": -11.3, "ret_120": 32.8, "ret_250": 17.1, "mdd_250": -45.0, "vol_250": 71.2, "pos_52w": 68.9}, "S": {"duration": 69, "pricing": 65, "hard": 18, "bondness": 8}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 46.3 倍、股息率 0.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 45.7%、固定资产占比 11%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 45.7%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.5%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.7%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 10.2 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 10.62 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 46.3 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 17%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 71%,现价在 52 周高点的 69%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -11% / 33%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "联芸科技:PE 比行业中位低 35.2倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.4个百分点。"]}}