{"F": {"ts_code": "688439.SH", "name": "振华风光", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "国防军工", "sw2": "军工电子Ⅱ", "sw3": "军工电子Ⅲ", "ind": "军工电子Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220826", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 38.63, "pe_ttm": 78.9714, "pb": 1.549, "dv_ttm": 0.4401, "total_mv": 772600.0, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [68.0, 74.0, 77.4, 74.5, 67.3, 60.4], "rev_series": [3.6, 5.0, 7.8, 13.0, 10.0, 7.7], "np_series": [1.1, 1.8, 3.0, 6.1, 2.9, 1.7], "roe_series": [43.5, 41.3, 12.6, 13.7, 6.0, 3.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 6.1, "np_ttm": 1.0, "ocf_ttm": 5.4, "fcf_ttm": 4.9, "fcf_yield": 6.3, "ocf_yield": 7.0, "gm_median": 74.0, "gm_std": 6.1, "gm_stab": 0.92, "gm_chg_2022": 9.4, "npm_median": 37.4, "roe_median": 12.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 10.0, "fix_assets": 5.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 1.55, "capex_dep": 1.33, "interest_debt": 1.8, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 9.4, "debt_mv": 2.3, "payout": 20.0, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -0.3, "np_cagr3": -17.5, "rev_yoy": -34.6, "np_yoy": -114.0, "np_vol": 63.5, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 94.0, "earn_yield": 1.3, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": 61.3, "fwd_pe2": 44.9, "fwd_g1": 29.0, "fwd_g2": 37.0, "peg": 1.66, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 33.0], ["集成电路产品", 33.0], ["集成电路", 33.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 26.4, "ret_prev2_year": -42.1, "ret_ytd": -40.0, "ret_pivot": -7.5, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -3.0, "ret_60": -10.8, "ret_120": -32.1, "ret_250": -36.3, "mdd_250": -47.2, "vol_250": 36.3, "pos_52w": 54.9}, "S": {"duration": 86, "pricing": 80, "hard": 16, "bondness": 34}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["轻资产现金牛"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 79.0 倍,估值里约 94% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 10%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(1 篇研报)前瞻 PE 61.3 倍,次年 44.9 倍,PEG 1.66。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 74.0%),硬资产占比 10%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 6.3%(经营现金流/市值 7.0%)。覆盖高。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 74.0%,稳定度 92%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 9.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 10%,资本开支/折旧 1.33 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 79.0 倍 粗算,约 94%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -36%,最大回撤 -47%,年化波动 36%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -3% / -11% / -32%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「军工电子Ⅱ」61 家中位:PE 79.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 39.7% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 33%。", "振华风光:PE 与行业中位持平;股息率 比行业中位低 0.1个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 34.3个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 4.1个百分点。"]}}