{"F": {"ts_code": "688432.SH", "name": "有研硅", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体材料", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20221110", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": null, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": null, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": null, "trade_date": null, "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [35.4, 27.9, 38.1, 34.4, 36.7, 36.7], "rev_series": [5.6, 8.7, 11.8, 9.6, 10.0, 10.1], "np_series": [1.1, 1.5, 3.5, 2.5, 2.3, 2.1], "roe_series": [11.3, 9.4, 11.8, 6.3, 5.5, 4.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 11.8, "np_ttm": 2.4, "ocf_ttm": 3.4, "fcf_ttm": 1.0, "fcf_yield": null, "ocf_yield": null, "gm_median": 36.7, "gm_std": 3.6, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": 2.8, "npm_median": 27.0, "roe_median": 6.3, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 24.7, "fix_assets": 14.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": null, "capex_dep": 2.21, "interest_debt": 0.3, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 10.5, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 32.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": -5.1, "np_cagr3": -15.9, "rev_yoy": 21.2, "np_yoy": 25.7, "np_vol": 59.4, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 1, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 24.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["半导体硅抛光片", 33.0], ["300mm半导体硅片-抛光片", 33.0], ["刻蚀设备用硅材料", 25.0], ["其他主营业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 10.5, "ret_prev2_year": -8.5, "ret_ytd": 266.0, "ret_pivot": 417.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 16.2, "ret_60": 95.5, "ret_120": 197.6, "ret_250": 258.5, "mdd_250": -52.9, "vol_250": 87.1, "pos_52w": 79.9}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 59, "hard": 40, "bondness": 32}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE —、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 36.7%、固定资产占比 25%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 36.7%),硬资产占比 25%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "经营现金流/市值 —(futu 无资本开支,FCF 按经营现金流 × 0.7 近似)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 36.7%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 2.8 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 25%,资本开支/折旧 2.21 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 258%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 87%,现价在 52 周高点的 80%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 16% / 96% / 198%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "有研硅:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 1.7个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.3个百分点。"]}}