{"F": {"ts_code": "688428.SH", "name": "诺诚健华", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "化学制药", "sw3": "化学制剂", "ind": "化学制药", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220921", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 31.71, "pe_ttm": 61.0485, "pb": 7.313, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 5609838.297, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [null, 93.7, 77.1, 82.6, 86.3, 92.0], "rev_series": [0.0, 10.4, 6.3, 7.4, 10.1, 23.7], "np_series": [-3.9, -0.6, -8.9, -6.3, -4.4, 6.4], "roe_series": [-788.3, -1.5, -13.4, -8.6, -6.4, 8.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 27.8, "np_ttm": 9.2, "ocf_ttm": 2.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_yield": 0.3, "ocf_yield": 0.4, "gm_median": 86.3, "gm_std": 6.1, "gm_stab": 0.93, "gm_chg_2022": null, "npm_median": -44.9, "roe_median": -6.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 6.2, "fix_assets": 7.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 7.31, "capex_dep": 1.24, "interest_debt": 22.3, "debt_ebitda": 2.5, "debt_ratio": 31.5, "debt_mv": 4.0, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 56.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 55.5, "np_yoy": 918.7, "np_vol": 554.0, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 179.2, "fwd_pe2": 246.0, "fwd_g1": -66.0, "fwd_g2": -27.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["药品销售", 40.0], ["技术授权", 9.0], ["研发服务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 67.1, "ret_prev2_year": 6.8, "ret_ytd": 54.5, "ret_pivot": 217.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.0, "ret_60": 49.9, "ret_120": 36.3, "ret_250": 7.1, "mdd_250": -35.0, "vol_250": 52.8, "pos_52w": 99.3}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 83, "hard": 10, "bondness": 8}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 9.2 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 61 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 32%,有息负债 22 亿,经营现金流/市值 0.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 86.3%),硬资产占比 6%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.3%(经营现金流/市值 0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 86.3%,稳定度 93%。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 6%,资本开支/折旧 1.24 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 61.0 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 7%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 53%,现价在 52 周高点的 99%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 9% / 50% / 36%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制药」157 家中位:PE 37.5 / 股息率 1.2% / 毛利率 52.5% / 固定资产占比 30% / 分红率 38%。", "诺诚健华:PE 比行业中位高 23.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 33.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 23.6个百分点。"]}}