{"F": {"ts_code": "688419.SH", "name": "耐科装备", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体设备", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20221107", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 47.1, "pe_ttm": 61.3705, "pb": 5.1798, "dv_ttm": 0.8444, "total_mv": 539538.507, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.1, 36.2, 36.2, 41.0, 37.9, 42.1], "rev_series": [1.7, 2.5, 2.7, 2.0, 2.7, 2.9], "np_series": [0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.5, 0.6, 0.8], "roe_series": [38.5, 33.7, 10.1, 5.5, 6.5, 7.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 3.4, "np_ttm": 0.9, "ocf_ttm": 0.6, "fcf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_yield": 0.7, "ocf_yield": 1.1, "gm_median": 37.9, "gm_std": 2.4, "gm_stab": 0.94, "gm_chg_2022": -4.9, "npm_median": 23.9, "roe_median": 7.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 12.1, "fix_assets": 1.5, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.18, "capex_dep": 1.47, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 18.0, "debt_mv": null, "payout": 51.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 3.1, "np_cagr3": 12.0, "rev_yoy": 33.1, "np_yoy": 18.2, "np_vol": 13.8, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 92.0, "earn_yield": 1.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["半导体封装设备", 34.0], ["汽车塑料挤出件系列产品", 27.0], ["塑料挤出成型模具、挤出成型装置", 27.0], ["半导体封装模具", 7.0]], "ret_prev_year": 28.2, "ret_prev2_year": -12.2, "ret_ytd": 70.7, "ret_pivot": 226.8, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -5.2, "ret_60": -14.5, "ret_120": 0.9, "ret_250": 57.2, "mdd_250": -59.2, "vol_250": 80.7, "pos_52w": 59.9}, "S": {"duration": 78, "pricing": 56, "hard": 19, "bondness": 43}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": [], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 61.4 倍,估值里约 92% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 12%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 37.9%),硬资产占比 12%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 37.9%,稳定度 94%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.9 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 12%,资本开支/折旧 1.47 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 61.4 倍 粗算,约 92%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 57%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 81%,现价在 52 周高点的 60%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -5% / -14% / 1%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "耐科装备:PE 比行业中位低 20.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 2.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 0.7个百分点。"]}}