{"F": {"ts_code": "688418.SH", "name": "震有科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "通信", "sw2": "通信设备", "sw3": "其他通信设备", "ind": "通信设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 31.45, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 8.2793, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 605584.217, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [52.4, 48.1, 38.6, 40.5, 45.7, 39.9], "rev_series": [5.0, 4.6, 5.3, 8.8, 9.5, 8.8], "np_series": [0.4, -1.0, -2.2, -0.9, 0.3, -0.7], "roe_series": [4.9, -8.5, -20.9, -9.9, 3.2, -7.5], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 7.8, "np_ttm": -1.5, "ocf_ttm": -1.4, "fcf_ttm": -2.0, "fcf_yield": -3.2, "ocf_yield": -2.3, "gm_median": 40.5, "gm_std": 3.7, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -13.8, "npm_median": -9.3, "roe_median": -8.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 1.1, "fix_assets": 0.2, "goodwill_ratio": 3.2, "pb_calc": 8.28, "capex_dep": 5.83, "interest_debt": 4.7, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 49.8, "debt_mv": 7.8, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 18.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": -27.6, "np_yoy": -174.5, "np_vol": 195.6, "loss_years": 4, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 2, "fwd_pe": 62.3, "fwd_pe2": 31.8, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 96.0, "peg": 0.65, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 40.0], ["技术及维保服务", 12.0], ["技术与维保服务", 12.0], ["数智网络及智慧应急系统", 11.0]], "ret_prev_year": 49.1, "ret_prev2_year": 54.6, "ret_ytd": -27.7, "ret_pivot": 115.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -16.7, "ret_60": -23.8, "ret_120": -21.8, "ret_250": -3.3, "mdd_250": -54.1, "vol_250": 72.0, "pos_52w": 49.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 56, "hard": 2, "bondness": 5}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损", "资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -1.5 亿,近 5 年亏损 4 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 50%,有息负债 5 亿,经营现金流/市值 -2.3%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 40.5%),硬资产占比 1%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.2%(经营现金流/市值 -2.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 40.5%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -13.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 1%,资本开支/折旧 5.83 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -3%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 49%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -17% / -24% / -22%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通信设备」89 家中位:PE 84.6 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 29.1% / 固定资产占比 14% / 分红率 41%。", "震有科技:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 11.4个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 13.1个百分点。"]}}