{"F": {"ts_code": "688416.SH", "name": "恒烁股份", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "数字芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220829", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 70.91, "pe_ttm": 68.9628, "pb": 5.3427, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 764982.0437, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [25.4, 40.8, 27.0, 14.6, 13.2, 17.1], "rev_series": [2.5, 5.8, 4.3, 3.1, 3.7, 4.7], "np_series": [0.2, 1.5, 0.2, -1.7, -1.6, -1.0], "roe_series": [14.6, 45.2, 2.0, -10.7, -11.1, -7.6], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.3, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_ttm": 1.2, "fcf_yield": 1.6, "ocf_yield": 1.7, "gm_median": 17.1, "gm_std": 10.3, "gm_stab": 0.4, "gm_chg_2022": 1.6, "npm_median": -21.0, "roe_median": -7.6, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 2.0, "fix_assets": 0.3, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 5.34, "capex_dep": 1.94, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.1, "debt_ratio": 6.6, "debt_mv": 0.1, "payout": null, "div_years": 0, "rev_cagr3": 3.1, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 203.2, "np_yoy": 297.3, "np_vol": 490.2, "loss_years": 3, "far_share": 93.0, "earn_yield": 1.5, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["存储芯片", 46.0], ["微控制器及其他", 4.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 41.4, "ret_prev2_year": -33.4, "ret_ytd": 67.2, "ret_pivot": 341.7, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.2, "ret_60": -17.1, "ret_120": 2.2, "ret_250": 93.3, "mdd_250": -57.5, "vol_250": 88.0, "pos_52w": 50.6}, "S": {"duration": 82, "pricing": 31, "hard": 3, "bondness": 17}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["近5年≥2年亏损"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 1.1 亿,近 5 年亏损 3 年;PE 69 倍(盈利极薄),估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 7%,有息负债 0 亿,经营现金流/市值 1.7%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 2%,毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 1.6%(经营现金流/市值 1.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 17.1%,稳定度 40%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.6 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 2%,资本开支/折旧 1.94 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 69.0 倍 粗算,约 93%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 93%,最大回撤 -58%,年化波动 88%,现价在 52 周高点的 51%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -17% / 2%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "恒烁股份:PE 比行业中位低 12.5倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 17.9个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.4个百分点。"]}}