{"F": {"ts_code": "688411.SH", "name": "海博思创", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "sw3": "其他电源设备Ⅲ", "ind": "其他电源设备Ⅱ", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20250127", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 177.41, "pe_ttm": 25.537, "pb": 6.2562, "dv_ttm": 0.8962, "total_mv": 3236932.3809, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [21.7, 20.5, 20.4, 19.8, 18.5, 18.2], "rev_series": [null, null, 26.3, 69.8, 82.7, 116.1], "np_series": [null, null, 1.8, 5.8, 6.5, 9.5], "roe_series": [-0.7, 1.1, 11.3, 28.5, 23.4, 24.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 133.9, "np_ttm": 12.7, "ocf_ttm": 9.8, "fcf_ttm": 1.3, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 3.0, "gm_median": 19.8, "gm_std": 1.0, "gm_stab": 0.95, "gm_chg_2022": -1.4, "npm_median": 7.8, "roe_median": 23.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 3.9, "fix_assets": 8.1, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 6.26, "capex_dep": 13.48, "interest_debt": 20.2, "debt_ebitda": 1.5, "debt_ratio": 75.1, "debt_mv": 6.2, "payout": 52.0, "div_years": 2, "rev_cagr3": 64.1, "np_cagr3": 75.1, "rev_yoy": 39.2, "np_yoy": 100.2, "np_vol": 539.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 80.0, "earn_yield": 3.9, "consensus_n": 17, "fwd_pe": 16.1, "fwd_pe2": 10.1, "fwd_g1": 59.0, "fwd_g2": 59.0, "peg": 0.27, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["储能系统", 50.0], ["技术服务", 0.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": null, "ret_prev2_year": null, "ret_ytd": -28.6, "ret_pivot": null, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -17.2, "ret_60": -26.5, "ret_120": -31.2, "ret_250": 65.5, "mdd_250": -53.0, "vol_250": 80.9, "pos_52w": 47.0}, "S": {"duration": 47, "pricing": 50, "hard": 6, "bondness": 28}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 100%,PE TTM 25.5 倍 但前瞻 PE 16.1 倍,PEG 0.27。", "自由现金流 1.3 亿(正),次年预期增速 59%(17 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 4%,毛利率近 5 年中位 19.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 3.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 19.8%,稳定度 95%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 4%,资本开支/折旧 13.48 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 25.5 倍 粗算,约 80%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 66%,最大回撤 -53%,年化波动 81%,现价在 52 周高点的 47%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -17% / -26% / -31%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「其他电源设备Ⅱ」33 家中位:PE 69.0 / 股息率 0.6% / 毛利率 25.3% / 固定资产占比 16% / 分红率 34%。", "海博思创:PE 比行业中位低 43.5倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 5.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 12.2个百分点。"]}}