{"F": {"ts_code": "688410.SH", "name": "山外山", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "医药生物", "sw2": "医疗器械", "sw3": "医疗设备", "ind": "医疗器械", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20221226", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 10.0, "pe_ttm": 24.1577, "pb": 2.4704, "dv_ttm": 1.4286, "total_mv": 447440.9, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [41.9, 40.5, 43.6, 54.1, 45.3, 50.2], "rev_series": [2.5, 2.8, 3.8, 6.9, 5.7, 8.1], "np_series": [0.2, 0.2, 0.6, 1.9, 0.7, 1.5], "roe_series": [8.4, 5.2, 6.2, 12.1, 4.2, 8.4], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.1, "np_ttm": 1.9, "ocf_ttm": 2.8, "fcf_ttm": 0.2, "fcf_yield": 0.5, "ocf_yield": 6.3, "gm_median": 45.3, "gm_std": 4.8, "gm_stab": 0.89, "gm_chg_2022": 1.7, "npm_median": 14.9, "roe_median": 6.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 20.3, "fix_assets": 5.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.47, "capex_dep": 16.91, "interest_debt": 0.0, "debt_ebitda": 0.0, "debt_ratio": 26.0, "debt_mv": 0.0, "payout": 45.1, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 28.3, "np_cagr3": 35.0, "rev_yoy": 29.8, "np_yoy": 71.5, "np_vol": 114.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 79.0, "earn_yield": 4.1, "consensus_n": 7, "fwd_pe": 16.6, "fwd_pe2": 12.5, "fwd_g1": 46.0, "fwd_g2": 33.0, "peg": 0.5, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 36.0], ["血液净化设备收入", 24.0], ["血液净化设备", 24.0], ["血液净化耗材", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": 36.0, "ret_prev2_year": -43.3, "ret_ytd": -5.2, "ret_pivot": 86.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.5, "ret_60": 1.1, "ret_120": -11.1, "ret_250": -12.9, "mdd_250": -26.6, "vol_250": 42.5, "pos_52w": 78.0}, "S": {"duration": 45, "pricing": 63, "hard": 32, "bondness": 24}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 72%,PE TTM 24.2 倍 但前瞻 PE 16.6 倍,PEG 0.50。", "自由现金流 0.2 亿(正),次年预期增速 33%(7 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 45.3%),硬资产占比 20%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.5%(经营现金流/市值 6.3%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.3%,稳定度 89%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.7 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 20%,资本开支/折旧 16.91 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 24.2 倍 粗算,约 79%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -13%,最大回撤 -27%,年化波动 42%,现价在 52 周高点的 78%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / 1% / -11%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「医疗器械」140 家中位:PE 38.6 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 55.4% / 固定资产占比 22% / 分红率 45%。", "山外山:PE 比行业中位低 14.4倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 10.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 1.6个百分点。"]}}