{"F": {"ts_code": "688409.SH", "name": "富创精密", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "半导体设备", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20221010", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 179.1, "pe_ttm": 484.1277, "pb": 11.8391, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 5484235.428, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [31.6, 32.0, 32.7, 25.2, 25.8, 22.2], "rev_series": [4.8, 8.4, 15.4, 20.7, 30.4, 35.4], "np_series": [0.9, 1.3, 2.5, 1.7, 2.0, -0.1], "roe_series": [14.0, 12.9, 8.6, 3.7, 4.4, -0.2], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 41.4, "np_ttm": 1.1, "ocf_ttm": 5.2, "fcf_ttm": -3.7, "fcf_yield": -0.7, "ocf_yield": 1.0, "gm_median": 25.8, "gm_std": 4.1, "gm_stab": 0.84, "gm_chg_2022": 1.1, "npm_median": 8.1, "roe_median": 4.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 38.7, "fix_assets": 37.6, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 11.84, "capex_dep": 2.26, "interest_debt": 29.7, "debt_ebitda": 4.6, "debt_ratio": 50.8, "debt_mv": 5.4, "payout": 65.7, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 31.9, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 34.4, "np_yoy": 992.9, "np_vol": 66.8, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 99.0, "earn_yield": 0.2, "consensus_n": 9, "fwd_pe": 145.6, "fwd_pe2": 89.4, "fwd_g1": 232.0, "fwd_g2": 63.0, "peg": 2.31, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 49.0], ["其他业务", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 31.1, "ret_prev2_year": -1.5, "ret_ytd": 165.7, "ret_pivot": 478.3, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -8.4, "ret_60": 1.9, "ret_120": 96.6, "ret_250": 160.7, "mdd_250": -52.1, "vol_250": 81.4, "pos_52w": 58.5}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 51, "hard": 62, "bondness": 37}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 484.1 倍、股息率 —、毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%、固定资产占比 39%、有息负债/EBITDA 4.6 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 39%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%,稳定度 84%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.7%(经营现金流/市值 1.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 25.8%,稳定度 84%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 1.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 39%,资本开支/折旧 2.26 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 484.1 倍 粗算,约 99%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 161%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 81%,现价在 52 周高点的 58%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -8% / 2% / 97%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "富创精密:PE 比行业中位高 402.6倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位低 9.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 27.3个百分点。"]}}