{"F": {"ts_code": "688400.SH", "name": "凌云光", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220706", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 44.36, "pe_ttm": 29.2414, "pb": 2.6889, "dv_ttm": 0.1901, "total_mv": 2110425.6692, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [34.6, 33.4, 33.3, 31.5, 34.7, 34.8], "rev_series": [17.6, 24.4, 27.5, 26.4, 22.3, 29.1], "np_series": [1.3, 1.7, 1.9, 1.6, 1.1, 1.6], "roe_series": [12.7, 11.9, 6.9, 4.2, 2.7, 4.0], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 29.9, "np_ttm": 7.2, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_yield": -0.2, "ocf_yield": 0.7, "gm_median": 33.4, "gm_std": 1.2, "gm_stab": 0.96, "gm_chg_2022": -1.3, "npm_median": 5.7, "roe_median": 4.2, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 8.6, "fix_assets": 8.6, "goodwill_ratio": 6.6, "pb_calc": 2.69, "capex_dep": 2.1, "interest_debt": 2.1, "debt_ebitda": 0.7, "debt_ratio": 21.5, "debt_mv": 1.0, "payout": 24.3, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 1.9, "np_cagr3": -4.9, "rev_yoy": 6.1, "np_yoy": 583.3, "np_vol": 30.2, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 83.0, "earn_yield": 3.4, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 50.6, "fwd_pe2": 56.3, "fwd_g1": -42.0, "fwd_g2": -10.0, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 93.9, "ret_prev2_year": -18.7, "ret_ytd": 4.9, "ret_pivot": 176.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -9.6, "ret_60": -21.4, "ret_120": 2.9, "ret_250": 20.6, "mdd_250": -45.3, "vol_250": 69.2, "pos_52w": 62.2}, "S": {"duration": 52, "pricing": 57, "hard": 14, "bondness": 30}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 29.2 倍、股息率 0.2%、毛利率近 5 年中位 33.4%、固定资产占比 9%、有息负债/EBITDA 0.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 33.4%),硬资产占比 9%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.2%(经营现金流/市值 0.7%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.4%,稳定度 96%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -1.3 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 9%,资本开支/折旧 2.10 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 29.2 倍 粗算,约 83%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 21%,最大回撤 -45%,年化波动 69%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -21% / 3%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "凌云光:PE 比行业中位低 13.1倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 9.4个百分点。"]}}