{"F": {"ts_code": "688398.SH", "name": "赛特新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "基础化工", "sw2": "化学制品", "sw3": "其他化学制品", "ind": "化学制品", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200211", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": false}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 19.83, "pe_ttm": 241.7247, "pb": 3.2569, "dv_ttm": 0.2509, "total_mv": 332775.5586, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.4, 32.2, 26.6, 33.0, 29.1, 23.9], "rev_series": [5.2, 7.1, 6.4, 8.4, 9.3, 9.9], "np_series": [0.9, 1.1, 0.6, 1.1, 0.8, 0.2], "roe_series": [16.2, 13.1, 6.9, 10.2, 6.8, 2.1], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 10.2, "np_ttm": 0.1, "ocf_ttm": 1.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.0, "fcf_yield": 0.1, "ocf_yield": 4.1, "gm_median": 29.1, "gm_std": 3.4, "gm_stab": 0.88, "gm_chg_2022": -9.8, "npm_median": 10.0, "roe_median": 6.9, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 48.4, "fix_assets": 10.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 2.92, "capex_dep": 2.05, "interest_debt": 6.9, "debt_ebitda": 5.1, "debt_ratio": 47.1, "debt_mv": 20.8, "payout": 35.7, "div_years": 5, "rev_cagr3": 16.0, "np_cagr3": -27.6, "rev_yoy": 4.8, "np_yoy": -86.1, "np_vol": 48.3, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 98.0, "earn_yield": 0.4, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 30.8, "fwd_pe2": 18.5, "fwd_g1": 684.0, "fwd_g2": 67.0, "peg": 0.46, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["真空绝热板", 97.0], ["其他业务", 1.0], ["保温箱", 1.0], ["其他收入", 1.0]], "ret_prev_year": 27.2, "ret_prev2_year": -37.5, "ret_ytd": 17.0, "ret_pivot": 75.6, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -4.4, "ret_60": -32.1, "ret_120": -19.4, "ret_250": -10.3, "mdd_250": -46.3, "vol_250": 47.6, "pos_52w": 57.0}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 49, "hard": 77, "bondness": 33}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 241.7 倍、股息率 0.3%、毛利率近 5 年中位 29.1%、固定资产占比 48%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.1 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 48%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 29.1%,稳定度 88%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.1%(经营现金流/市值 4.1%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 29.1%,稳定度 88%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -9.8 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 48%,资本开支/折旧 2.05 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 241.7 倍 粗算,约 98%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -10%,最大回撤 -46%,年化波动 48%,现价在 52 周高点的 57%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -4% / -32% / -19%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「化学制品」188 家中位:PE 35.9 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 22.3% / 固定资产占比 34% / 分红率 41%。", "赛特新材:PE 比行业中位高 205.8倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.8个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 6.8个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.9个百分点。"]}}