{"F": {"ts_code": "688392.SH", "name": "骄成超声", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电专用设备", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220927", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 161.77, "pe_ttm": 115.2452, "pb": 9.8957, "dv_ttm": 0.241, "total_mv": 1872219.2118, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [64.3, 49.1, 52.1, 57.0, 56.9, 63.4], "rev_series": [2.6, 3.7, 5.2, 5.3, 5.8, 7.7], "np_series": [0.9, 0.7, 1.1, 0.7, 0.9, 1.2], "roe_series": [70.7, 31.0, 10.6, 3.8, 5.0, 6.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 9.0, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": 0.9, "fcf_ttm": -1.6, "fcf_yield": -0.8, "ocf_yield": 0.5, "gm_median": 56.9, "gm_std": 4.9, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": -12.2, "npm_median": 14.5, "roe_median": 6.7, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.1, "fix_assets": 3.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 9.9, "capex_dep": 19.92, "interest_debt": 2.3, "debt_ebitda": 1.2, "debt_ratio": 29.2, "debt_mv": 1.2, "payout": 38.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 14.0, "np_cagr3": 2.0, "rev_yoy": 38.2, "np_yoy": 77.4, "np_vol": 37.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 96.0, "earn_yield": 0.9, "consensus_n": 13, "fwd_pe": 74.3, "fwd_pe2": 49.0, "fwd_g1": 55.0, "fwd_g2": 52.0, "peg": 1.43, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 179.7, "ret_prev2_year": -51.4, "ret_ytd": 44.4, "ret_pivot": 495.0, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 8.2, "ret_60": -0.7, "ret_120": 43.4, "ret_250": 94.7, "mdd_250": -51.9, "vol_250": 78.4, "pos_52w": 66.9}, "S": {"duration": 94, "pricing": 64, "hard": 18, "bondness": 25}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 115.2 倍,估值里约 96% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "一致预期(13 篇研报)前瞻 PE 74.3 倍,次年 49.0 倍,PEG 1.43。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 56.9%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -0.8%(经营现金流/市值 0.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 56.9%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -12.2 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 19.92 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 115.2 倍 粗算,约 96%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 95%,最大回撤 -52%,年化波动 78%,现价在 52 周高点的 67%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 8% / -1% / 43%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "骄成超声:PE 比行业中位高 79.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.5个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 39.1个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 16.7个百分点。"]}}