{"F": {"ts_code": "688391.SH", "name": "钜泉科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电子", "sw2": "半导体", "sw3": "模拟芯片设计", "ind": "半导体", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20220913", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": false, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 25.7, "pe_ttm": 156.5908, "pb": 1.6095, "dv_ttm": 1.1673, "total_mv": 297076.323, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [38.2, 45.5, 51.3, 49.7, 44.1, 39.2], "rev_series": [3.8, 5.0, 7.1, 6.0, 5.9, 5.4], "np_series": [0.6, 1.0, 2.0, 1.3, 0.9, 0.4], "roe_series": [26.6, 36.7, 17.4, 6.5, 4.8, 2.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 5.5, "np_ttm": 0.2, "ocf_ttm": 0.4, "fcf_ttm": 0.1, "fcf_yield": 0.4, "ocf_yield": 1.5, "gm_median": 45.5, "gm_std": 4.3, "gm_stab": 0.91, "gm_chg_2022": 13.1, "npm_median": 20.3, "roe_median": 6.5, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 11.2, "fix_assets": 2.2, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 1.61, "capex_dep": 2.54, "interest_debt": 0.1, "debt_ebitda": 1.4, "debt_ratio": 5.6, "debt_mv": 0.2, "payout": 80.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -8.8, "np_cagr3": -40.2, "rev_yoy": 2.3, "np_yoy": -63.7, "np_vol": 60.1, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 97.0, "earn_yield": 0.6, "consensus_n": 0, "fwd_pe": null, "fwd_pe2": null, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": null, "peg": null, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 45.0], ["智能电表芯片", 35.0], ["载波芯片", 9.0], ["物联网及其他芯片", 9.0]], "ret_prev_year": -4.8, "ret_prev2_year": -10.1, "ret_ytd": -8.3, "ret_pivot": 6.2, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -0.5, "ret_60": -12.1, "ret_120": -17.1, "ret_250": -20.0, "mdd_250": -35.2, "vol_250": 39.1, "pos_52w": 71.4}, "S": {"duration": 98, "pricing": 66, "hard": 18, "bondness": 59}, "label": "纯久期", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE TTM 156.6 倍,估值里约 97% 来自 5 年后的假设;固定资产占比 11%,几乎没有重置成本可言。", "贴现率每升 1 个百分点,杀伤按 PE 线性放大;这是纯数学,与基本面好坏无关。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占定价权一条(毛利率 45.5%),硬资产占比 11%。分子能跟上通胀,但没有重置成本对冲;按'定价权·品牌'看,不按硬资产看。", "加息期怎么走": "加息期第一个被砸的就是它;拥挤龙头先被砸,那正是建仓窗口,但要等放水信号,别用最贵的票坐车。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 0.4%(经营现金流/市值 1.5%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 45.5%,稳定度 91%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 13.1 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 11%,资本开支/折旧 2.54 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 156.6 倍 粗算,约 97%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -20%,最大回撤 -35%,年化波动 39%,现价在 52 周高点的 71%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -0% / -12% / -17%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「半导体」186 家中位:PE 81.5 / 股息率 0.3% / 毛利率 35.0% / 固定资产占比 11% / 分红率 32%。", "钜泉科技:PE 比行业中位高 75.1倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.9个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位高 10.5个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 0.2个百分点。"]}}