{"F": {"ts_code": "688390.SH", "name": "固德威", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "光伏设备", "sw3": "逆变器", "ind": "光伏设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200904", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 61.22, "pe_ttm": 33.983, "pb": 4.8622, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1488399.6182, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [37.6, 31.7, 32.5, 30.8, 21.0, 21.5], "rev_series": [15.9, 26.8, 47.1, 73.5, 67.4, 88.9], "np_series": [2.6, 2.8, 6.5, 8.5, -0.6, 1.3], "roe_series": [27.8, 18.0, 33.2, 32.5, -2.2, 4.9], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 110.5, "np_ttm": 4.4, "ocf_ttm": 8.4, "fcf_ttm": 6.5, "fcf_yield": 4.3, "ocf_yield": 5.6, "gm_median": 30.8, "gm_std": 5.1, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": -5.1, "npm_median": 10.4, "roe_median": 18.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 14.2, "fix_assets": 18.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.3, "pb_calc": 4.86, "capex_dep": 1.16, "interest_debt": 17.0, "debt_ebitda": 2.1, "debt_ratio": 75.4, "debt_mv": 11.4, "payout": 30.4, "div_years": 3, "rev_cagr3": 23.6, "np_cagr3": -40.8, "rev_yoy": 53.0, "np_yoy": 1825.9, "np_vol": 142.9, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 17.1, "fwd_pe2": 12.3, "fwd_g1": 99.0, "fwd_g2": 39.0, "peg": 0.44, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 50.0], ["主营业务", 50.0], ["其他业务", 0.0]], "ret_prev_year": 51.9, "ret_prev2_year": -55.9, "ret_ytd": -1.5, "ret_pivot": 49.4, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -10.4, "ret_60": -46.0, "ret_120": -38.2, "ret_250": 23.9, "mdd_250": -59.3, "vol_250": 65.4, "pos_52w": 41.0}, "S": {"duration": 57, "pricing": 48, "hard": 23, "bondness": 17}, "label": "成长兑现", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["盈利在追估值:最新净利润同比 1826%,PE TTM 34.0 倍 但前瞻 PE 17.1 倍,PEG 0.44。", "自由现金流 6.5 亿(正),次年预期增速 39%(11 篇研报),风险在增速假设能否延续。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 14%,毛利率近 5 年中位 30.8%。", "加息期怎么走": "估值不靠远期故事,加息期比纯久期抗跌;风险在订单与增速,盯业绩不盯利率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 4.3%(经营现金流/市值 5.6%)。一般。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 30.8%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -5.1 个百分点。取决于竞争。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 14%,资本开支/折旧 1.16 倍。没有资产可言。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.0 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 24%,最大回撤 -59%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 41%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -10% / -46% / -38%。 长久期资产波动大是常态;离高点已远,拥挤已部分释放。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「光伏设备」73 家中位:PE 41.0 / 股息率 0.5% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 23% / 分红率 29%。", "固德威:PE 比行业中位低 7.0倍;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 13.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 8.4个百分点。"]}}