{"F": {"ts_code": "688388.SH", "name": "嘉元科技", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "电力设备", "sw2": "电池", "sw3": "锂电池", "ind": "电池", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20190722", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 26.97, "pe_ttm": 44.2164, "pb": 2.1317, "dv_ttm": 0.1148, "total_mv": 1779769.9881, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [24.2, 30.0, 19.8, 5.8, 2.0, 5.0], "rev_series": [12.0, 28.0, 46.4, 49.7, 65.2, 96.4], "np_series": [1.9, 5.5, 5.2, 0.2, -2.4, 0.6], "roe_series": [7.3, 17.7, 9.6, 0.3, -3.4, 0.8], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 131.9, "np_ttm": 4.0, "ocf_ttm": -0.1, "fcf_ttm": -5.9, "fcf_yield": -3.3, "ocf_yield": -0.0, "gm_median": 5.8, "gm_std": 10.7, "gm_stab": -0.85, "gm_chg_2022": -4.4, "npm_median": 0.6, "roe_median": 0.8, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 41.3, "fix_assets": 64.8, "goodwill_ratio": 0.1, "pb_calc": 2.13, "capex_dep": 1.79, "interest_debt": 53.9, "debt_ebitda": 6.5, "debt_ratio": 45.3, "debt_mv": 30.3, "payout": 53.4, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 27.6, "np_cagr3": -52.2, "rev_yoy": 89.6, "np_yoy": 940.0, "np_vol": 572.7, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 89.0, "earn_yield": 2.3, "consensus_n": 11, "fwd_pe": 17.1, "fwd_pe2": 10.4, "fwd_g1": 158.0, "fwd_g2": 64.0, "peg": 0.27, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 48.0], ["锂电铜箔", 42.0], ["其他收入", 4.0], ["其他业务", 4.0]], "ret_prev_year": 178.8, "ret_prev2_year": -27.4, "ret_ytd": -4.5, "ret_pivot": 370.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": -6.4, "ret_60": -24.9, "ret_120": -12.1, "ret_250": 41.9, "mdd_250": -54.2, "vol_250": 75.8, "pos_52w": 55.2}, "S": {"duration": 67, "pricing": 7, "hard": 66, "bondness": 34}, "label": "重资产陷阱", "tags": ["PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["资产很重:固定资产占总资产 41%,但毛利率近 5 年中位只有 5.8%,产品同质、售价涨不动。", "2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点;有息负债/EBITDA 6.5 倍,折旧与利息两头吃。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "只占硬资产一条(占比 41%),没有定价权:毛利率近 5 年中位 5.8%,稳定度 -85%。通胀来了成本转嫁不出去,利润跟不上通胀。这是陷阱不是保护。", "加息期怎么走": "滞胀里两头挤,成本全涨售价涨不动还吃折旧,跌得比成长股狠。除非商品价格反转,否则回避。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -3.3%(经营现金流/市值 -0.0%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 5.8%,稳定度 -85%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -4.4 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 41%,资本开支/折旧 1.79 倍。涨。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 44.2 倍 粗算,约 89%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 42%,最大回撤 -54%,年化波动 76%,现价在 52 周高点的 55%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 -6% / -25% / -12%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「电池」111 家中位:PE 35.8 / 股息率 0.7% / 毛利率 17.8% / 固定资产占比 28% / 分红率 36%。", "嘉元科技:PE 比行业中位高 8.4倍;股息率 比行业中位低 0.6个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 12.0个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 13.5个百分点。"]}}