{"F": {"ts_code": "688383.SH", "name": "新益昌", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "专用设备", "sw3": "其他专用设备", "ind": "专用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20210428", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 120.98, "pe_ttm": null, "pb": 9.5963, "dv_ttm": null, "total_mv": 1229719.357, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [36.3, 42.6, 43.6, 33.5, 31.8, 29.3], "rev_series": [7.0, 12.0, 11.8, 10.4, 9.3, 7.3], "np_series": [1.1, 2.3, 2.0, 0.6, 0.4, -1.3], "roe_series": [20.6, 25.4, 15.6, 4.4, 2.9, -9.7], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 8.7, "np_ttm": -0.8, "ocf_ttm": -0.5, "fcf_ttm": -2.2, "fcf_yield": -1.8, "ocf_yield": -0.4, "gm_median": 33.5, "gm_std": 5.8, "gm_stab": 0.83, "gm_chg_2022": 7.4, "npm_median": 5.3, "roe_median": 4.4, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 21.6, "fix_assets": 7.0, "goodwill_ratio": 0.4, "pb_calc": 9.6, "capex_dep": 5.95, "interest_debt": 10.6, "debt_ebitda": null, "debt_ratio": 60.4, "debt_mv": 8.6, "payout": 41.9, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": -15.0, "np_cagr3": null, "rev_yoy": 36.1, "np_yoy": 1706.7, "np_vol": 177.2, "loss_years": 1, "far_share": 100, "earn_yield": null, "consensus_n": 5, "fwd_pe": 99.8, "fwd_pe2": 56.1, "fwd_g1": null, "fwd_g2": 78.0, "peg": 1.28, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["固晶设备", 23.0], ["LED及新型显示设备", 23.0], ["半导体设备", 20.0], ["半导体封装设备", 20.0]], "ret_prev_year": 75.2, "ret_prev2_year": -57.2, "ret_ytd": 54.6, "ret_pivot": 213.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 2.0, "ret_60": -22.4, "ret_120": 65.0, "ret_250": 61.3, "mdd_250": -55.1, "vol_250": 65.4, "pos_52w": 61.7}, "S": {"duration": 100, "pricing": 57, "hard": 35, "bondness": 38}, "label": "亏损或困境", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期"], "text": {"像什么": ["TTM 归母净利 -0.8 亿,近 5 年亏损 1 年;PE 为负,估值指标失真。", "资产负债率 60%,有息负债 11 亿,经营现金流/市值 -0.4%:先看现金流能否覆盖利息,再谈久期。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 22%,毛利率近 5 年中位 33.5%。", "加息期怎么走": "利率上行对高杠杆亏损企业是再融资压力,不是估值问题;周期底部的反转看行业价格,不看贴现率。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -1.8%(经营现金流/市值 -0.4%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 33.5%,稳定度 83%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 7.4 个百分点。能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 22%,资本开支/折旧 5.95 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 为负 粗算,约 100%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 61%,最大回撤 -55%,年化波动 65%,现价在 52 周高点的 62%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 2% / -22% / 65%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「专用设备」205 家中位:PE 42.3 / 股息率 1.1% / 毛利率 26.3% / 固定资产占比 18% / 分红率 44%。", "新益昌:PE ;股息率 ;毛利率 比行业中位高 7.2个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位高 3.6个百分点。"]}}