{"F": {"ts_code": "688379.SH", "name": "华光新材", "mkt": "CN", "ccy": "元", "sw1": "机械设备", "sw2": "通用设备", "sw3": "金属制品", "ind": "通用设备", "fin_source": "tushare", "market": "科创板", "list_date": "20200819", "is_fin": false, "roles": {"fin": false, "commodity": false, "precious": false, "regulated": false, "hard": true, "growth": true}, "province": null, "main_business": "", "introduction": "", "close": 56.5, "pe_ttm": 34.2716, "pb": 3.7522, "dv_ttm": 1.0572, "total_mv": 536628.525, "trade_date": "20260904", "years": ["20201231", "20211231", "20221231", "20231231", "20241231", "20251231"], "multi_year": true, "gm_series": [18.0, 13.6, 10.2, 12.8, 13.8, 12.9], "rev_series": [8.6, 12.1, 12.2, 14.2, 19.2, 25.6], "np_series": [0.6, 0.5, 0.1, 0.4, 0.8, 1.9], "roe_series": [9.3, 5.0, 1.0, 4.5, 8.3, 17.3], "period": "20260630", "rev_ttm": 36.6, "np_ttm": 1.6, "ocf_ttm": -4.7, "fcf_ttm": -6.1, "fcf_yield": -11.4, "ocf_yield": -8.8, "gm_median": 12.9, "gm_std": 1.3, "gm_stab": 0.9, "gm_chg_2022": -7.8, "npm_median": 3.7, "roe_median": 5.0, "commodity": false, "hard_ratio": 15.2, "fix_assets": 6.4, "goodwill_ratio": 0.0, "pb_calc": 3.75, "capex_dep": 3.84, "interest_debt": 15.8, "debt_ebitda": 5.7, "debt_ratio": 66.1, "debt_mv": 29.5, "payout": 29.5, "div_years": 4, "rev_cagr3": 27.9, "np_cagr3": 178.4, "rev_yoy": 91.4, "np_yoy": -25.6, "np_vol": 159.7, "loss_years": 0, "far_share": 85.0, "earn_yield": 2.9, "consensus_n": 3, "fwd_pe": 24.3, "fwd_pe2": 16.7, "fwd_g1": 41.0, "fwd_g2": 45.0, "peg": 0.54, "consensus_disp": null, "mainbz": [["产品", 46.0], ["银钎料", 24.0], ["铜基钎料", 14.0], ["其他主营业务", 8.0]], "ret_prev_year": 179.6, "ret_prev2_year": 4.3, "ret_ytd": 3.5, "ret_pivot": 332.9, "prev_year": "2025", "prev2_year": "2024", "ret_20": 9.9, "ret_60": -30.1, "ret_120": 13.2, "ret_250": -2.5, "mdd_250": -56.3, "vol_250": 72.4, "pos_52w": 59.1}, "S": {"duration": 58, "pricing": 42, "hard": 24, "bondness": 32}, "label": "中性", "tags": ["资本开支扩张期", "PEG<0.8"], "text": {"像什么": ["PE 34.3 倍、股息率 1.1%、毛利率近 5 年中位 12.9%、固定资产占比 15%、有息负债/EBITDA 5.7 倍:四轴都不突出。"], "为什么(不)算钱的替代品": "两条都不占:固定资产占比 15%,毛利率近 5 年中位 12.9%。", "加息期怎么走": "按行业与估值常规看,没有明确的利率方向性。", "四问": [["当前 FCF 能覆盖多少市值?", "自由现金流/市值 -11.4%(经营现金流/市值 -8.8%)。极低或为负。"], ["能否每年提价而不掉量?", "毛利率近 5 年中位 12.9%,稳定度 90%,2020→2022 成本通胀期毛利率变化 -7.8 个百分点。不能。"], ["资产重置成本随通胀涨吗?", "固定资产 + 在建占总资产 15%,资本开支/折旧 3.84 倍。有一些。"], ["估值里多少来自 5 年后的故事?", "按 PE 34.3 倍 粗算,约 85%(1 − 5/PE)。>70%,把 5 年后的假设砍一半,这个股票值多少钱?"]], "价格行为": "近一年 -2%,最大回撤 -56%,年化波动 72%,现价在 52 周高点的 59%;近 20 / 60 / 120 日 10% / -30% / 13%。", "行业对照": ["同申万二级「通用设备」248 家中位:PE 50.6 / 股息率 0.8% / 毛利率 28.5% / 固定资产占比 21% / 分红率 45%。", "华光新材:PE 比行业中位低 16.3倍;股息率 比行业中位高 0.3个百分点;毛利率 比行业中位低 15.6个百分点;固定资产占比 比行业中位低 5.6个百分点。"]}}